078
FXUS63 KMPX 081000
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
400 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulation of an inch or less of light snow expected across
  southern Minnesota today.

- Much colder air settles in for the second half of the weekend
  before warming back to near/above normal for the remainder of
  the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Skies cleared late last night more than anticipated, allowing
temperatures to quickly drop into the low 20s across western and
central Minnesota. Low clouds have managed to hang on to the east
across Wisconsin, where temperatures are still at or above freezing
at 2am. The area of clear skies is shrinking quickly as the
cloud cover fills in to the west ahead of our approaching
Clipper system, which is a smaller wave associated with a
deepening upper low over James Bay. Surface observations back
across the Dakotas are reporting snow with DOT cameras verifying
what radar is depicting: a band of light to moderate snow
across eastern South Dakota is leading to some accumulation on
grassy surfaces. The majority of this snow will be confined to
extreme southwestern Minnesota and along and south of the I-90
corridor where up to an inch of snow is possible through early
afternoon. Locations as far north as Redwood Falls and Mankato
may pick up a tenth of an inch or two of slushy, early season
snow. A few flurries may show up along and south of I- 94, but
otherwise, the early winter preview will be confined to the
Dakotas and Iowa.

As the aforementioned upper low in Ontario drops southward over the
Great Lakes and the surface low tracks across the the Ohio Valley
late this evening, northwesterly winds will increase with strong
CAA. This will lead to a very cold start for Sunday, with wind
chills falling into the single digits area wide. A couple of hi-res
models have started to indicate some very light precip is possible
on the backside of this system during Sunday afternoon, mainly
across portions of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. While
forecast soundings for east central Minnesota do show a saturated
DGZ and the potential for some flurries/light snow showers, the bulk
of the moisture will be further east. Highs Sunday are not expected
to get above freezing.

We`ll start the week with another chilly day before warmer
temperatures return for the rest of the period. Much of the week
looks to be dry, with maybe a few disturbances passing to our north.
Ridging builds in by mid week across the central CONUS, which will
send our temperatures back into the upper 40s and 50s heading into
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR cigs will hold for a couple more hours before a clipper
system over the Dakotas brings MVFR conditions through Saturday
morning. Maintained the PROB30 for KRWF and KMKT, as those
terminals will be right on the northern edge of the -SN as the
low tracks across southeastern South Dakota into Iowa.
Elsewhere, high end MVFR/low VFR cigs will settle in early this
morning and continue before improving. North winds will be light
and shift from north-northeast to northwest as the system pulls
away to the south. Speeds will increase during the evening and
into the end of the period, with gusts of 15-20kts possible.

KMSP...Aside from a few flurries, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15g25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind WSW 10-20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dye