179
FXUS63 KMPX 040548
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain will exit the region early this evening,
  lingering in Wisconsin through 7PM.

- Degraded air quality due to wildfire smoke persists through
  Wednesday morning for most of Minnesota and all of Wisconsin.

- An unsettled weather pattern returns late week, but heavy
  precipitation is not currently anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

Gradual improvement in weather conditions is expected over the
next 24 hours. The widespread showers associated with a
shortwave trough that brought a good soaking to southern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin are progressing east and things
will dry out overnight. As of 1PM, WFO MPX observed just under
an inch over the last 24 hours. The MSP Airport was slightly
less than this, with around three quarters of an inch as of 1PM.
Surface smoke and associated air quality concerns remain through
early Wednesday, with Unhealthy to Unhealthy for Sensitive
Groups forecast across the region (per the MN Pollution Control
Agency). These categories are an improvement from this morning`s
Very Unhealthy category, where AQI values in the PM2.5 category
were in excess of 200.

Wednesday should turn out to be quite a nice day with limited
sky cover and temps in the upper 70s as high pressure takes
over. Thursday will be similar, but with increasing clouds and a
chance for rain in the evening ahead of another shortwave on
Friday.

Deterministic and ensemble models have shown a notable uptick
in precipitation chances Friday afternoon. The mean surface to
400mb wind kicks out of the southwest just long enough to
transport PWAT values of ~1" northward. This is likely in
response to a more pronounced shortwave jogging down from
Canada. A lobe of vorticity along the axis of the wave should
provide enough lift for scattered showers to develop during the
day Friday. Precipitation is not expected to be as widespread,
but some locations may see an additional few tenths of rain. A
few hundred joules of CAPE may also support a few heavier
showers and storms, resulting in some locally heavier
accumulations. Temperatures would also likely be on the lower
end of the probabilistic forecast depending on how expansive the
cloud cover and showers are.

Quickly after the shortwave exits, a broader mid-level low will
also eject down from Canada, bringing another shot at rain this
weekend. The attendant surface low and associated fronts should
be stronger - highlighted by several ensemble members
forecasting 30+ mph winds Sunday into Monday following the
fropa. Wrap-around CAA showers are possible both Monday and
Tuesday. Overall, QPF looks to be around another few tenths or
so (highlighted by the Day 4-6 WPC QPF), with the greatest
amounts closer to the US/Canada border. So, to summarize... no
single day looks to be a washout Friday through Tuesday, but it
will be a relatively active period with multiple chances for
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Conditions are deteriorating across WI and parts of eastern MN
with fog development and lingering smoke. Expecting IFR or LIFR
conditions at RNH and EAU overnight, with MVFR likely at MSP
and MKT. Conditions will improve just after dawn.

KMSP...Could see vis drop to 3-5SM, but it could go lower if
fog/mist also develop as the temperature/dew point spread
decreases.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind N to NE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR bcmg -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED/PV
AVIATION...Borghoff