634
FXUS63 KMPX 041954
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in effect for central MN
  and west central WI through this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Saturday.

- Relief from the heat and occasional chances for thunderstorms
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Current observations highlight a hot & humid Independence day across
the Upper Midwest. Temperatures range from the upper 80s across
southern Minnesota to mid 90s in north-central Minnesota all while
our dew points are in the upper 60s & lower 70s. Heat indices are in
the lower 90s to lower 100s across the area within the Heat
Advisory. The heat advisory goes until 8 pm when temperatures begin
to cool off but we will have to wait until the real relief arrives
overnight into Saturday. The regional radar mosaic reveals a
supercell along the international border. This cell likely developed
along the warm front that is along the border. Additional convection
is likely to develop across northern MN this afternoon and evening
given 2500-3000 J/Kg MLCAPE, sufficient wind shear, and adequate
lapse rates to support strong to severe storms. These storms will
not impact our forecast area.

Our attention will turn west this evening as additional development
is forecast across the eastern Dakotas along the cold front. These
storms will merge into an MCS that`ll track out of the Dakotas and
into W MN this evening. It`ll slowly track along the cold front
overnight with PoPs increasing after midnight in C MN & E MN and
after sunrise in W WI. Severe chances will be low, but not zero, the
primary concern being gusty winds. Storm/showers will slow as they
approach the Twin Cities Saturday morning. Forecast soundings
suggest the precipitation along the boundary will bring a heavy rain
threat with 1.7+" PW values. A low pressure will move along the
boundary on Saturday and lead to additional development of storms &
showers Saturday afternoon across south/east MN & western WI. Latest
hires guidance highlights the potential of 1-2"+ across portions of
S MN. The front will kick through W WI by Saturday night and usher
in cooler, drier air with WNW flow aloft. Severe chances remain low
with a Marginal Risk on Saturday. The "best" forecast soundings lean
into lower-end threat across far S MN and WC WI.

The remainder of the forecast period looks seasonable with highs in
the low 80s, overnight lows in the 60s, and several weak
disturbances that`ll support localized convection. There isn`t
enough support to highlight any one of these waves, but don`t be
surprised by pop-up storms mid to late week. Guidance highlights the
potential for a larger disturbance that could impact the area next
weekend. Otherwise - it`s a textbook stretch of mid-Summer weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR conditions until a line of showers and thunderstorms from
the Dakotas travels east into western MN late this evening.
Terminals in western to central MN could experience stronger
storms with gusty winds and potentially large hail while
visibilities fall to MVFR. But, the activity should weaken as it
travels east overnight, reaching WI by about 11Z Saturday
morning. By this point, precipitation should likely be showers
but can`t rule out a thunderstorm, hence the inclusion of
PROB30s for -TSRA at RNH and EAU. Cigs should plummet to at
least MVFR once precipitation arrives with most terminals likely
seeing a brief reduction to IFR before cigs improve to MVFR by
late morning. South-southwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots
this afternoon but slow to near or just under 10 knots this
evening. Winds will increase slightly and become northwesterly
from west to east across MN Saturday morning after the frontal
passage occurs.

KMSP...Moved up rain`s arrival time to 10Z on Saturday morning.
Kept PROB30 for -TSRA for the first few hours of the rain`s
arrival as thunderstorms still look possible, though activity
will be weakening. Cigs should drop to MVFR (with bases near
1500 feet during heavier precip) once precip arrives.
Redevelopment of -TSRA is possible again early Saturday
afternoon before conditions improve to VFR later in the
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Benton-
     Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Pope-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-
     Swift-Todd-Washington-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...CTG