009
FXUS63 KMPX 112350
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow with
  breezy northwest winds following a frontal passage overnight
  tonight.

- A few showers are possible tonight, but better chances for
  rain exist towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

If you need a reason to smile on this Monday, know that we have
(very, very likely) seen the last of below freezing temperatures for
the season! Most places bottomed out in the low 30s this morning and
a few locales did get down into the mid to upper 20s. Looking back
at climate records, this is around the average date of the last
freeze for EAU and STC (May 8th and 9th respectively). MSP has
evaded the freezing temperatures for the last few days, but our
chilly mornings last week were about a week later than average
(April 28th). Some high clouds ahead of an approaching system have
overspread much of the region this afternoon, but temperatures have
still warmed 5 to 10 degrees from this time yesterday. A low
tracking along the International Border has a few radar returns
showing up across the Dakotas, but surface obs indicate that precip
is not reaching the ground. 18z soundings from BIS and ABR are quite
dry, so this is not surprising. Precip chances are expected to
increase across the region through this evening as southerly flow
continues to advect better moisture northward. Until then, RH values
are sitting in the teens and 20s across southern and western
Minnesota this afternoon. Winds are relatively light, but did issue
an SPS through this evening for elevated fire weather concerns. PoPs
increase for central Minnesota and western Wisconsin after midnight
tonight and continue into early Tuesday as the front slides through.
QPF amounts are only expected to be on the order of a trace to a few
hundredths.

This will be little help when it comes to fire weather conditions
tomorrow, as northwest winds behind this system will become quite
gusty. RH values should be running a little higher than today, but
in coordination with our neighboring offices and MNICS, have issued
a Red Flag Warning for much of southwestern Minnesota tomorrow.
Heading into midweek, temperatures will continue to warm with
widespread upper 70s/low 80s by Friday. Shower and thunderstorm
chances return Thursday into Friday and again late in the weekend as
the pattern looks to turn more active.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR but breezy through the period, with -SHRA likely over WI
sites late tonight. FEW to SCT skies will become BKN as a cold
front approaches overnight. 40kt LLWS is likely along with a
potential for rain at STC and MSP for a short period between 05
to 10z. Higher confidence in seeing rain across WI sites where
TEMPOs for SHRA are present between 6 to 12z Tuesday morning.
Once the front passes, winds will shift from S/SE to NW and
remain breezy for the rest of the period. Sustained winds will
range between 15-25kts with gusts approaching 25-35kts.

KMSP...Maintained mentions of 40kt LLWS and PROB30 -SHRA
between 6-10z tonight as a cold front moves through. There is a
low chance for -TSRA in this same period (10-20%), but left out
of TAF at this time. Gusty southerly winds will continue to
increase overnight, with gusts to 25kts possible by 6Z. After
the cold front passes around 10-13Z, winds will shift from S/SE to
NW and become breezier yet, with gusts to 30kts.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-20G30 kts.
FRI...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA/MVFR. Wind S to NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for Blue Earth-
     Brown-Chippewa-Faribault-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Sibley-
     Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...PV