641
FXUS63 KMPX 212315
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
615 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tonight into Friday, scattered thunderstorms along a passing
  cold front. A few storms could produce gusty winds and large
  hail.

- This weekend and early next week, cooler temperatures with
  highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...It was another summer-like day with
partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 80s across
western Minnesota, to mid 70s across western Wisconsin. Winds
were out of the south, owing partially to being on the back side
of a surface high pressure, and also ahead of an approaching
cold front.

This cold front is forecast to slowly pass through the region
later tonight into Friday. As it does, a weak shortwave aloft
will help spark some showers and thunderstorms along it. These
are expected to get started in the western Dakotas late this
evening, and move into western Minnesota late tonight into early
Friday morning. Forecast soundings show a fairly robust amount
of elevated convection, with 2000 to 3000 J/kg across western
Minnesota, and there is enough deep layer shear from the upper
level jet to support some organized convection. The storm
prediction center has introduced a small area of Slight Risk
across the far western part of the area, and this is for a wind
and hail threat. Since this will be elevated convection, the
risk for tornados is very low.

These storms will most likely be at their strongest as they
move into western Minnesota late tonight into Friday morning,
but then should weaken throughout the morning as they move east
and outrun the instability. There is a chance for storms to
strengthen again later in the day. For that reason, the Storm
Prediction Center has only a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for the
region on Friday. After the storms move through, northwest winds
will start to increase and bring cooler and drier air across the
region.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...This cooler and drier will be a
noticeable change come this weekend. Highs on Saturday will
struggle to reach 70 degrees with breezy northwest winds.
Forecast soundings also show increasing clouds during the day.
The same holds true for Sunday. On both of these days, there is
a small chance for rain showers, but give the shallow nature of
the instability in the forecast soundings, at this point
confidence in precipitation this weekend has decreased compared
to the last couple of days.

Looking ahead, high pressure will settle across the region,
keeping conditions dry, but will also lessen the winds.
Temperatures will remain on the cool side for Monday and
Tuesday, but gradually increase toward the end of the week. By
Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will be in the mid 70s, but
that is still a couple degrees below normal for late August.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

VFR conditions this evening with clearing skies as the sun sets.
A cold front was located to the northwest, and this will be the
focus for showers and thunderstorms early Friday morning for
most TAF sites. Meanwhile KAXN could see some thunderstorms at
the start of the TAF period, but they should weaken and dive
south.

KMSP...VFR conditions overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will
approach from the west Friday morning, so have narrowed down the
tempo to 14-17Z, when the most likely time frame is for storms.
Once they move through, expect some mid level clouds, and then
winds will become more northwest toward the afternoon/evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB