367
FXUS63 KMPX 021048
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures slightly warm this weekend with two chances of
  rain for eastern MN and west-central WI Saturday night and
  Monday.

- A cooldown follows Monday with frost/freeze concerns returning
  through mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Despite a majority of our CWA having clear skies, temperatures have
seemed relatively slow to fall tonight. This could be due to the
beginnings of the WAA that will warm us up this weekend. A few areas
have fallen to near the freezing mark, particularly central MN and
northwest WI. Still, expecting much of our area to drop to at least
near freezing by sunrise, as our widespread Freeze Warning remains
in effect. The aforementioned WAA will cause us to warm into the 60s
this afternoon. Clear skies will gradually become cloudier
throughout today as a subtle shortwave approaches within the
northwesterly flow. Far western MN could see a brief period of
elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon before cloud cover
arrives. Humidities are forecast to drop into the upper 20 percent
range while west-southwesterly winds will gust to near 25 MPH.
Borderline conditions but perhaps a SPS fire weather conditions
could be warranted later today, depending on how cloud cover
evolves. CAMs show showers breaking out late this afternoon across
central MN and traveling southeast through this evening. Have 20-40%
PoPs across eastern MN and WI as coverage seems more scattered.
Places that do see rain won`t have a total washout, but expect wet
surfaces and possibly a brief trip indoors if you have outdoor plans
tonight. Tonight`s lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.

Sunday`s highs will reach the 60s again with mostly sunny skies.
Fire weather conditions actually look a little more concerning
Sunday afternoon compared to Saturday. Humidities are forecast to
drop largely below 30 percent with localized areas seeing 20-25
percent. Northwesterly winds won`t be very strong but they will be
breezy and widespread with most of the area seeing gusts of 20-25
MPH. While it will be a nice weekend to be outside, please be
careful if planning to do any outdoor burning. The warmth should
last into Monday before a cold front arrives Monday afternoon. Our
southern CWA is forecast to see highs in the lower 70s while central
MN will be near 60 as the cold front interjects during peak heating.
Rain showers are possible along this front, but a majority of the
synoptic lift is placed off to our northeast. The highest PoPs for
our area (30-40%) are currently over WI where a few hundredths of
rain could occur. The bigger story with this cold front will be the
proceeding cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper 40s to mid 50s are
possible for highs while frost/freeze concerns will return each
night through Wednesday night. Forecast models do hint of a
moderation of temperatures the latter half of next week as upper-
level ridging over the western CONUS tries to work east. But, don`t
expect a big warm up soon as northwesterly flow should continue to
largely prevail over the Northern Plains at least into the 2nd week
of May. Significant chances for precipitation also look slim given
the northwest flow regime.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Only major adjustments made for this TAF period were at EAU.
Timing of PROB30 for -SHRA at EAU was shifted a few hours later
as forecast models have been signaling delayed arrival for
precip. Also, added southwesterly LLWS of 40 knots at EAU
tonight as a westerly LLJ moves overhead. Otherwise, clouds will
increase today with cigs falling to near 8000 feet this
afternoon/evening. Kept existing PROB30s for -SHRA as CAMs show
possibility for scattered showers this evening. West-
southwesterly winds will gust to 20-25 knots over western MN
with speeds decreasing east. Winds become northwesterly from
west to east after midnight tonight.

KMSP...Kept 03-06z timing this evening for PROB30 of -SHRA.
Northwesterly winds prevail after 09z Sunday with gusts reaching
20 knots by late Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
MON...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G25kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-
     Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-
     Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-
     Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG