353
FXUS63 KMPX 050718
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
218 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler temperatures (40s) through Tuesday.

- Warmer temperatures (50s/60s) arrive Wednesday into next
  weekend.

- A quiet (& dry) weather pattern through the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Apr 5 2025

Today through Tuesday... GOES imagery reveals a shortwave trough
moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region early
this morning. This brought us light rain & snow showers overnight
that most of us wouldn`t have known about if I didn`t bring it up. A
surface high will build in behind the departing cold front &
shortwave. This will dominate our weather for much of the next week.
Overcast skies will clear out around sunrise and leave us with a
rather pleasant, but cool Saturday. Highs will only make into the
40s and northwest winds with gusts up to 25 mph will make it feel
more like early March than early April. Tonight will be mostly clear
with lows in the 20s.

Sunday will be a bit nicer than today with mostly sunny skies and
highs in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Our northwest winds will stick
around 5 to 10 mph. The one interesting tidbit of weather over the
next week arrives Sunday night as a clipper drops southward into the
Great Latest. We`re on the edge of this system`s influence and will
miss out on any snow/rain chances but we`re going to see another
brief cooldown. This is a rather impressive shot of cold air with
850mb temperatures in the -10 to -15 range centered over Michigan.
We will miss out of the coldest weather yet our temperatures will
struggle to hit 40 on Monday. Sunday & Monday night will be chilly
with low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s. Tuesday will
see temperatures begin to moderate as the trough over the Great
Lakes will shift eastward. This allows the western ridge to begin to
build in over the Plains & western Upper Midwest mid-week.

Wednesday through next Saturday... Sfc high pressure will shift east
and allow the western ridge to begin to build in over the Plains &
western Upper Midwest mid-week. Highs will be near normal, in the
upper 40s and lower 50s. NBM PoPs have increased over the past 24
hours to 20-30 PoPs on Wednesday. The culprit is another weak
shortwave impulse that`ll track from the northern Plains into the
mid-Mississippi valley. We`ll find ourselves on the fringe once
again, but some light rain showers can`t be ruled out...

A more significant pattern shift is expected late week as a trough
digs in along the western CONUS. This allows mid level ridging to
build in across the central CONUS and usher in warmer temperatures
and southwest flow. Ensemble guidance highlights our high
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s Thursday
through the weekend. The western trough will eject a sfc low out of
the Rockies into the central Plains. This feature will need to be
monitored as it could bring our next meaningful precipitation
chances next weekend. Timing and track vary significantly, which
isn`t unusual 7+ days out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Light rain and snow is currently over central & eastern MN will
continue to slowly travel east overnight. Current observations
reflect a combination of MVFR/IFR cigs & VFR/MVFR vsby.
Terminals will experience a few hour reduction in conditions as
the precip passes through. Clouds should quickly clear from
west to east during early morning hours, giving way to VFR.
Northwesterly winds will increase to near 10 to 12 knots with
gusts to 20 knots possible, mainly tonight through the morning
hours. Winds maintain NW/WNW with gusts up to 25 knots after
sunrise today. We`ll see winds shift to the west and turn light
after sunset this evening.

KMSP... Low MVFR cigs remain likely. Precip should be light
enough to not cause any visibility reductions. Conditions should
improve to VFR by sunrise Saturday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH