015
FXUS63 KMPX 240843
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
343 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active wet pattern set for tonight through Thursday with
  several rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall.

- Still some uncertainty regarding where and when the heaviest
  rain will fall as model spread remains high.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Today is looking to be the driest of the next few days, but that
doesn`t mean totally dry. A near-stationary surface front has
stalled across central and northern Iowa early this morning.
This boundary is highly sloped, with the 850 hPa front near
I-90 and the 700-hPa boundary over central Minnesota. This broad
baroclinic zone has resulted in a wide area of potential lift
across the southern half of the forecast area this morning
despite a lack of organized forcing aloft. This has led to an
area of isolated to scattered showers across southern Minnesota
overnight, which a lot of model guidance struggled to resolve.
While this activity should push east through the morning, latest
CAMs guidance has been more aggressive with shower
redevelopment across the southern half of the area later this
afternoon while global models keep things mostly dry. Since CAMs
guidance resolved the overnight activity along the elevated
boundary better than the global models, their depiction of
scattered showers this afternoon can`t be disregarded as an
outlier so PoPs were increased for this afternoon accordingly.

A much more active pattern gets underway overnight tonight and
will last through Thursday night as a parade of weak upper waves
interacts with the boundary as it lifts northward into the area.
Very deep moisture return through this period, combined with
thermal profiles favorable for heavy rain rates, are likely to
favor pockets of heavy rainfall which could exceed 3" to 5" in
spots. However, models are still all over the place regarding
if, where and when the heaviest rain will fall as they struggle
to pinpoint the exact timing of these weak upper waves.
At this time about the most specific we can get with the heavy
rain threat is that a broad swath of 1" to 2" amounts seem
likely through Thursday night with some pockets of 3" to 5",
possibly even more if training storms develop. Where and when
the highest amounts will occur, and any resulting flooding
impacts, remain uncertain.

Models do agree that most of the rain should clear out overnight
Thursday leading to a mostly dry Friday with temperatures
rebounding into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Model spread then
reemerges for the weekend as the airmass continues to warm and
destabilize with another round of weak upper level disturbances
passing through. This could lead to one or more rounds of
thunderstorms across the area Saturday and/or Sunday, but
uncertainty on where and when is high.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

VFR conditions with mainly passing high clouds throughout this
duration. Winds will be the main variant, particularly wind
directions. After going light/variable overnight, winds will
gradually veer from N to E through tonight, with speeds under
10kts.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...SHRA/MVFR. Chc TSRA. Wind E 5-15 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc P.M. MVFR/SHRA. Winds SSW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...JPC