109
FXUS63 KMPX 011949
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
149 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures through Saturday, warming up to near
  normal Sunday, and above normal next week.

- Several additional chances for light precipitation through
  early next week, however significant accumulation is not
  expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 149 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Snowfall rates have come down across Minnesota and western
Wisconsin this afternoon. Saturation is still high enough for a
stratus deck that could have some occasional flurries this
afternoon into the early evening. As we start to cool later
today, temperatures will fall from the dew point and flurries
will end. This same process will also provide for some clearing
in the clouds allowing for tonight to get colder than this
previous night where the clouds kept us warmer than originally
expected. Generally 5 below to 5 above expected for the low
overnight. Thankfully winds will remain light, thanks to the
surface high. This will prevent wind chills from tanking
overnight.

For the rest of the week there are two stories: the
temperatures and the precipitation chances. For the
temperatures, northwest flow keeps us below normal through
Saturday. A shift to more westerly flow Sunday shifts us to near
normal Sunday and then trends towards above normal for the next
week where just about every day could see highs above freezing.
On the precipitation side there are three chances: tomorrow
night, Sunday, and Tuesday. For Friday night into Saturday
morning a setup similar to what we had this morning. Main
difference is there are fewer forecast soundings showing a
saturated DGZ, which would further limit snow amounts for an
already weakly forced, low QPF event. Sunday sees a shortwave
embedded in our westerly flow. Not a ton of moisture here
either, but forecast soundings suggest precipitation type will
be an issue. The warmer air advecting in aloft looks likely to
create a warm nose that could melt the frozen hydrometeors
aloft, resulting in rain. More ensemble members have trended
towards this warm nose, so opted to leave the freezing rain
populated from the NBM in this shift. Also quite the split
between the ENS and GEFS, with the ENS fairly confident in QPF and
the GEFS the opposite. Even in the ENS amounts still look
light though. Overall this looks like the main event to keep an
eye on of the three, as it has the best chance for impacts due
to the light freezing rain potential. Even in the most
aggressivesolutions though this only looks like a glaze to a
few hundredths (similar to what we saw earlier this week with
the drizzle on the back edge of the snow). Tuesday sees another
shortwave in our westerly flow. Overall very similar to Sunday,
but the forecast soundings in general are much drier. These
drier soundings actually look close to freezing drizzle
soundings, so that will be something to keep an eye on as we get
closer. Still a lot of spread for the solutions on this system
at the moment within ensemble systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light snow continues to slowly make it way southeast and
is now left pestering RNH, EAU, and just grazing MSP. Snow is
expected to clear closer to 21-22z timeframe for the WI sites as a
few additional bands of snow sink their way south out of
northwestern MN. Improvement to MVFR cigs will be slow. RAP
guidance is going much more aggressive across all sites
maintaining MVFR cigs which does look to make sense given
current satellite imagery. Therefore slowed timing for scattered
cigs until early Friday morning. Winds will start of the west-
southwest between 5-10 kts, and then veer northwesterly
overnight at or about 5 kts.

KMSP...The remnant light snow currently over the metro should just
graze MSP to the north and east. Although the snow has ended, the
flight category is expected to remain in MVFR through at least the
first half of tonight. Guidance has trended slower on removing low-
level stratus thus have pushed back scattered cigs until after 9z
onward. Winds will start out of the west-southwest then becoming
light and veer to the northwest overnight. Winds will remain
northwesterly through the rest of the period through tomorrow
between 5-10kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. S Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc -SN/MVFR. Wind SW at 5 kts, bcmg SE at 5

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...Dunleavy