698
FXUS63 KMPX 051041
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
541 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold overnight temperatures will lead to frost/freeze
  concerns throughout the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be present throughout
  the week, mainly due to low dew points/relative humidity.
  Winds will generally be the limiting factor.

- Small chance for showers Thursday, otherwise dry weather
  expected for the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The post-cold frontal airmass is already starting to show its hand
tonight, as temperatures are largely in the mid to upper 30s.
Expecting these temperatures to drop a few more degrees by sunrise
with west-central MN bottoming out near 30. While these values are
below freezing, opted to not do a Freeze Warning tonight as the
period below 32F should be only 2-3 hours. Highs today will only
reach the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest in southern MN) while mostly
cloudy skies are eventually expected by afternoon with a diurnal
cumulus field. RAP forecast soundings suggest these clouds could be
taller, perhaps even hinting at the possibility of a stray shower.
However, we`ll be dealing with subsidence from CAA so precipitation
doesn`t seem likely. Decent boundary layer mixing will cause some
breeziness this afternoon with gusts reach 20-25 MPH. Winds slow
this evening while skies clear, allowing for good radiational
cooling. This combined with the maxima of the cool airmass settling
nearby will allow nearly all of the CWA (except for maybe the Twin
Cities heat island) to drop below freezing Tuesday night. Currently
have forecast lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The Freeze Watch
currently in effect for west-central MN Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning will undoubtedly have to be upgraded to a Freeze Warning as
this region will be below freezing for several hours. But, will wait
for the next forecast cycle before upgrading. Remember to take
sensitive plants inside.

Wednesday`s weather will be much like Tuesday`s, though less breezy,
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows Wednesday night are
forecast in the lower to mid 30s with central MN into northwest WI
having the best chance of dropping below 32F. Temperatures will slow
trend upwards Thursday until Saturday as the cool airmass shift east
away from us. Meanwhile, ridging will become more pronounced over
the western CONUS and try to work into the Northern Plains. Highs in
the low to mid 60s return to most of our CWA for Thursday. The rain
chance for Thursday that was discussed in earlier AFDs has also
trended downward. The shortwave associated with the potential
showers has shifted more east into the Great Lakes in later model
runs. Instead, elevated fire weather conditions are possible
Thursday afternoon, particularly over western to southern MN where
minimum RH values are forecast to fall to 20-25%. Winds will be on
the lighter side, which along with the green-ness of vegetation will
limit fire weather concerns.

Highs are forecast to reach the mid 60s to lower 70s by Saturday as
WAA occurs ahead of an approaching shortwave within the
northwesterly flow. This shortwave currently has the best chance of
bringing rain to at least part of our CWA later Saturday. A cold
front will drop southeast with the wave and forecast models paint
QPF along and ahead of the front in conjunction with maximum daytime
heating. As of now, the most favored area for rain is over IA but
the NBM does give the I-90 corridor a chance with PoPs at 20-30%.
Temperatures will cool slightly Sunday following the cold front, but
long-range ensembles show a general slow trend upwards in warmth as
we head through next week. The forecast upper-level pattern shows a
lot of promise in transitioning away from the stubborn troughing
over the Upper Great Lakes and into more zonal flow towards the end
of next week and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

No significant changes have been made from the previous TAF
period. A broken diurnal cumulus field near 4000-5000 feet will
develop late this morning and last into early this evening.
Clouds will then lift and break apart tonight. Northwesterly
winds will increase during this morning reaching 10-15 knots
sustained with gusts of 20-25 knots through this afternoon.
Winds slow to near or under 5 knots after this evening.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW to NW at 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for
     Benton-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG