184
FXUS63 KMPX 300600
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
100 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid Sunday and Monday with chances for scattered
  showers and thunderstorms.

- Above average temperatures stick around as we start September
  with multiple shower chances throughout the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Rain cleared the CWA just before noon today with breezy southerly
and southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 30 MPH. Most places ended up
with 0.20 to 0.40" with some embedded higher totals greater than a
half inch. There are some breaks in the clouds, but overall
expecting mostly cloudy skies which will help keep our temperatures
in check. We won`t be as lucky tomorrow with continued southerly
flow aloft sending us ample warm, moist air. Apparent Ts may reach
the mid to upper 90s across southern and western Minnesota with
upper 80s to low 90s elsewhere. Precip chances have decreased for
much of the daytime hours tomorrow. A subtle wave overnight may lead
to some isolated showers and a rumble of thunder early Sunday for
far western Minnesota. The better chance for showers and storms will
arrive after sunset across western and central Minnesota into
western Wisconsin as a low moves out of the Dakotas. This system
will bring a cold front through the region, but the most it will do
in terms of sensible weather impacts is lower Tds for Tuesday. This
FROPA Monday afternoon will once again lead to some isolated showers
along the boundary, mainly in western Wisconsin.

PoPs increase Tuesday evening with another shortwave moving out of
the Dakotas. This will likely be another widespread light rainfall
event like we saw early this morning with QPF amounts around 0.20"
with localized higher totals. With the upper ridge shifting into the
eastern CONUS, we will find ourselves with nearly daily chances of
showers with embedded waves parading through. Temperatures will
continue to be above normal in the low to mid 80s through the end of
the period with PWATs running some 150 percent of normal. Those who
were hoping September would bring Fall-like weather will have to
wait.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Mid to upper-level cloud decks continue to blanket all sites
early this morning but we should remain in VFR categories until
about 9/10z timeframe. We are continuing to monitor precip
activity across the Dakotas that may end up producing -SHRA
across our western sites around sunrise. The timing for precip
will be similar to yesterday`s rainfall event however, coverage
will be significantly less. Given lack of confidence at any
particular site receiving rainfall, prob30 mentions were added.
The only exception is for RNH and EAU where a short period of
MVFR BR could develop. Once the -SHRA threat passes, easterly
winds shift southeasterly by mid-afternoon between 8-12kts.


KMSP...VFR with small chance of light MVFR -SHRA possible
between 12-15z this morning. Confidence lacked in any direct
impacts to to MSP proper. Thus, only included prob30 mention for
the current TAF. Easterly winds shift southeasterly by mid-
afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S becoming NW 5-10 kts.
TUE...Mainly VFR. Chc PM -TSRA/MVFR. Wind variable 5 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Dunleavy