830
FXUS63 KMPX 102312
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
512 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry week ahead, with only a slim chances for flurries
  overnight tonight in Wisconsin.

- Today was the last day with highs in the 30s for at least a
  week, with mild temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure centered over the southern Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley will continue weakening as it settles along
the Gulf Coast. Return flow has begun which has allowed low clouds
to scatter this afternoon. However, another shortwave will push
southeast to the Upper Mississippi Valley region tonight. High
clouds are quickly approaching from the west and overcast skies
are expected tonight. Some light snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out tonight when decently strong Omega exists in a
saturated DGZ layer. However, considerable dry air below 10kft
will make it difficult for much of it to reach the surface. The
best chances appear to be in WI where soundings attempt at low
level saturation better. Have maintained just low chances for
flurries or light snow. A surface occluded front will shift
winds from south this evening to west northwest overnight and
Tuesday. Wind gusts of 30 mph are possible with and behind the
front`s passage, but milder Pacific air will be advecting in.
Highs Tuesday may reach the 50s across the southern half of MN,
with 40s elsewhere.

A quiet pattern will persist through the rest of the workweek. A
gradual warming trend is also expected with temperatures
increasing each day into Saturday when highs in the 60s are
possible.

Model consistency has taken a hit with next weekend`s system
with most of the solutions maintaining a split flow pattern. In
this scenario, a weaker wave in the northern stream is more
progressive and the upper low in the southwestern U.S. is cut
off and lags well behind its northern counterpart. The result
would be a drier and sooner frontal passage with any meaningful
rainfall staying well to the south. Still, there are some other
ensemble members that bring substantial precip this weekend
with the two streams phasing. Low PoPs continue to blanket the
weekend into early next week, which may increase or disappear
altogether depending on how the two systems ultimate interact.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A stream of mid level cloud cover is apparently on satellite
under a blanket of BKN/OVC upper level clouds that will persist
into the start of the period. Lower level clouds could get as
low as 5kft with a small chance for a few cosmetic flurries
that should not be able to overcome dry ground conditions. Winds
will be gradually shifting from around 200 at the start of the
period to 250-280 and eventually near 300 with speeds increasing
after 12z as gusts eventually reach 20-23kts. Fair weather CU
could result in FEW/SCT 040-050 from 16-23z, otherwise expect
FEW/SCT250. Some LLWS is possible towards the last few hours of
the period, which was not included within the current TAF due to
confidence and the timing expected to be after the period for
most of it.

KMSP...Some cosmetic flurries are possible tonight from roughly
04-10z, however we do not anticipate any ground impacts as dry
air is present near the surface. CIGS remain VFR overnight
before scattering out with mainly high clouds throughout the
remainder of the period. We could see some fair weather CU from
18-23z at the 040-050 level, but do not expect a CIG right now
based on relatively dry forecast soundings. LLWS is possible
beyond the end of the period generally after 06z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25kts.
THU...VFR. Wind light/variable.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...TDH