824
FXUS63 KMPX 222320
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
520 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slight warm up is expected over the weekend before a more
  winter- like airmass moves in for the Thanksgiving holiday and
  beyond.

- Our next chance for precip arrives late Sunday into Monday,
  primarily for central and eastern Minnesota and western
  Wisconsin. Otherwise, no significant systems appear to be on
  the horizon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The eastern half of our forecast area is stuck under a deck of
stubborn stratus that extends down through central Missouri and
eastward to the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile, the western half of
Minnesota is enjoying a partly sunny but chilly Friday with
temperatures in the low 30s. The aforementioned stratus has
migrated ever so slowly to the east throughout the day, but any
clearing will be short lived. Mid and high clouds are expected
to fill in overnight area wide with persistent overcast/mostly
cloudy conditions through the majority of the forecast period.
Despite the gloomy skies, weekend temperatures will be pleasant
by late November standards, especially by Sunday. Strong WAA
will send highs into the mid 30s to mid 40s, some 5-7 degrees
above normal. With this WAA will come with an increase in
moisture ahead of a trough passing through northern Minnesota
and a weak surface low to the south. While these two features
will be far enough away from the MPX forecast area that we will
miss out on the main precip show, there`s a chance for some rain
and snow showers late Sunday into Monday. Since Sunday will be
warm/above freezing, anything that does fall will do so as rain.
Overnight, a transition to rain/snow is expected with
temperatures near freezing by Monday morning. Central and
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see the bulk of the
precip, but even so amounts will be minimal with QPF coming in
at only a few hundredths.

Temperatures will likely stay at or below freezing from Monday
evening through the remainder of the week. We will see our first
true taste of winter-like temperatures with lows bottoming out in
the teens to single digits by midweek. The coldest portion of
the forecast period will arrive just after the Thanksgiving
holiday and last into the beginning of December. The 6-10 day
CPC temperature outlook highlights this as well. Precip wise, a
clipper on Thanksgiving into Friday may bring our next chance
for some light snow showers, but confidence is low at this point
in time. However, confidence is high on the persistence of
extensive cloud cover from this weekend through next week. It
may not be until next weekend that we finally see some true
sunshine as this cold and dry Canadian airmass takes hold. &&

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Continued stratus except for MKT and RWF for much of this
period. It should begin to lift for VFR to return on Saturday
and coverage might even get to SCT as the high moves overhead.
With this high we will also see light and variable winds through
the period. Even for our currently clear terminals stratus will
return overnight. This will help to limit the chances for fog.
The best chance will be at MKT, but the main area of moisture is
more likely over southeast Minnesota to the east of MKT. So
opted to just go with a TEMPO at this time for fog/mist.

KMSP...Mid level stratus to continue this evening with continued
MVFR expected. Tonight, despite continued stratus the ceilings
will most likely lift to near the VFR/MVFR threshold. VFR
ceiling and light winds expected tomorrow.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR, chc -RASN. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...NDC