760
FXUS63 KMPX 081934
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
234 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions to continue over western MN
  through late this afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures expected through the weekend into early
  next week, including frosty mornings Sunday and Monday, then
  warmer late week.

- Some light rain is possible along a passing cold front tonight
  into early Saturday for central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin.

- Better chance for more widespread rainfall arrives late Monday
  into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a southward-sagging cold
front over the international border with a weak north- south
oriented trough over the MN/Dakota border. In advance of both
features, while temperatures have risen to the mid 60s to lower
70s, dewpoints have cratered into the 20s. In some cases,
dewpoint depressions have climbed as much as 50 degrees, making
for exceptionally dry air across the entire WFO MPX coverage
area, particularly western MN. Combined with breezy/gusty NW
winds, Red Flag Conditions are certainly being realized, with
care being taken by burning officials to ensure any burning
activities are contained and/or cancelled. The Red Flag Warning
continues through late this afternoon as it will not be until
this evening when conditions are no longer critical. However, as
the evening progresses, the front to the north and the trough
to the west will enter out coverage area and in conjunction move
across our area overnight. There looks to be sufficient
moisture aloft with these synoptic features to produce scattered
rain showers during the overnight hours. However, considering
the dry air up to around 10 kft that must be overcome, rainfall
totals at best will only be a few hundredths of an inch.

The next impact from the frontal passage will be an appreciable
drop in temperatures for the weekend as a modified cold
Canadian high pressure airmass will follow the cold front
southeastward. High pressure will enter the Lower 48 over the
Northern Plains on Saturday, eventually becoming centered over
the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday morning. While skies
will run mostly clear through the weekend, the ample sunshine
will not overcome the lower level cold air advection as highs
over the weekend will remain in the 50s/60s with lows in the 30s
Sunday morning (areas of frost likely, mainly north of I-94)
and Monday morning (widespread frost likely across nearly the
entire coverage area).

On the western fringes of this high pressure airmass is a
clipper-type low pressure system dropping southward along the
Canadian Rockies through the weekend, moving through the
Northern Plains Monday-Tuesday. This system looks to finally
break our extended dry period with widespread rain late Monday
night through Tuesday morning. QPF isn`t impressive by any
means, but there are still some model guidance members which
produce around a quarter inch of rain for eastern portions of
our coverage area. At this point, any rain is quite welcome. The
next potential chance for rain comes Thursday as another
organized low pressure system looks to move into the Upper
Midwest, but the more important aspect is this system will help
turn our temperatures around for the latter half of next week.
Western ridging behind this synoptic system will spread east
into the central CONUS late next week, allowing highs to punch
upwards into the 70s and 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR to start for all TAF sites with a couple rounds of passing
fair wx clouds around the 100 level, mainly SCT but occasionally
BKN through the rest of this afternoon. High cirrus will then
prevail through the evening but a weak mid-level disturbance
drifting across the region overnight may produce a few weak
-SHRA for most of the TAF sites. Not expecting visibilities
 below MVFR, likely remaining VFR as there is a lot of dry air
 to be overcome for showers to reach the surface, but have still
 maintained PROB30 mention for most sites. Mid-level cloud decks
 between SCT-BKN coverage will then prevail from around sunrise
 through late Saturday morning. Generally NW winds to prevail
 throughout this duration, breezy/gusty this afternoon into
 early evening then dropping off going into the overnight hours,
 then picking up once again after sunrise Saturday.

KMSP...If any showers do look to make it to MSP, it`d be in the
pre-dawn through sunrise hours, mainly 09z-13z. QPF will be
exceptionally light due to plenty of deep dry air to be
overcome, so have left the mention as a PROB30. Otherwise,
mainly a wind forecast with breezy/gusty winds this afternoon
settling down overnight then picking up once again mid-to-late
Saturday morning to again become breezy/gusty.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind SE to NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Benton-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Mille
     Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...JPC