387
FXUS63 KMPX 081739
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1239 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions develop across west-central
  MN this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued.

- Warmer today with one more round of frosty air this weekend
  before a more sustained warm up next week.

- Some light rain is possible along a passing cold front tonight
  into early Saturday for central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin.

- Better chance for more widespread rainfall arrives late Monday
  into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Building off of the overnight discussion, we have opted to issue
a Red Flag Warning across west-central MN as critical fire
weather conditions are forecast to develop this afternoon.
Morning forecast soundings across the model suite highlight deep
mixing to least 8-9k feet, with some hi-res solutions
suggesting mixing heights of 10k+ feet. Should easily mix
20-25kt winds to the surface as a result and will likely have a
few instantaneous gusts in excess of 30kts across western MN.
The combination of strong WNW winds and low RH`s (15-20% across
the Red Flag Warning area) will create critical fire weather
conditions this afternoon. The main "limiting factor" for a more
widespread fire weather threat is the recent "green-up" across
southern MN. Still, elevated to near-critical fire weather
conditions are possible across eastern MN/western WI this
afternoon. We issued a Special Weather Statement to address this
potential.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

This morning`s frost advisory looks to be on track as
temperatures have fallen across much of western Wisconsin into
parts of east central Minnesota. Farther west and south some
cloud cover and warmer air aloft has helped keep temperatures
warmer. Moving on to today, it looks like a brief warm up thanks
to some weak WAA. How strong this WAA is today will be key in
determining how windy it gets. If it ends up on the stronger
side, like some of the high resolution guidance like the HRRR
suggest, we may be able to mix down winds from as high as 700
mb. This would have winds over performing the current forecast.
Importantly this would take the elevated fire weather conditions
and could move it into more critical fire weather. All together
this afternoon into evening does not look like a good day for
burning. Our brief warm up will come to an end as a cold front
passes through tonight into tomorrow morning. With this frontal
passage the key question will be moisture. Overnight timing of
the frontal passage will help by having temperatures at a
diurnal minimum as a afternoon passage would very likely be dry
due to a lack of humidity. Even with the overnight timing, the
farther south the more low level dry air there will be.
Currently expecting the best chance to see overnight rain along
and north of the I-94 corridor. Further south chances drop off
as this dry air starts to win out more and more.

Behind the frontal passage will be a cooler weekend due to the
CAA. This keeps highs more in the 50s with some 60s across parts
of southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin. Generally higher
surface pressure, especially on Sunday night, will provide for
clear skies that will enable radiational cooling. This will
bring lows down into the 30s Saturday and Sunday night. Both
nights will likely see frost and some freezes will also be
possible, especially on Sunday night into Monday morning.

Next week will see a push of more sustained warm air across the
Upper Midwest. Guidance does not favor frost any morning next
week past Monday morning and CPC outlooks favor above normal
temperatures for the rest of the month. So it is looking
increasingly likely that frost and freeze season ends on Monday
morning. The other story next week will be the early week short
wave trough moving through. There is strong agreement amongst
the global ensembles that a widespread rain event will occur
here. Current QPF amounts do not look high with up to around a
tenth the most common although there is around a quarter to a
third of the global ensemble membership higher than that
depending on location across our area. Behind this trough a
ridge looks to build in midweek. This will help enable
widespread 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR to start for all TAF sites with a couple rounds of passing
fair wx clouds around the 100 level, mainly SCT but occasionally
BKN through the rest of this afternoon. High cirrus will then
prevail through the evening but a weak mid-level disturbance
drifting across the region overnight may produce a few weak
-SHRA for most of the TAF sites. Not expecting visibilities
 below MVFR, likely remaining VFR as there is a lot of dry air
 to be overcome for showers to reach the surface, but have still
 maintained PROB30 mention for most sites. Mid-level cloud decks
 between SCT-BKN coverage will then prevail from around sunrise
 through late Saturday morning. Generally NW winds to prevail
 throughout this duration, breezy/gusty this afternoon into
 early evening then dropping off going into the overnight hours,
 then picking up once again after sunrise Saturday.

KMSP...If any showers do look to make it to MSP, it`d be in the
pre-dawn through sunrise hours, mainly 09z-13z. QPF will be
exceptionally light due to plenty of deep dry air to be
overcome, so have left the mention as a PROB30. Otherwise,
mainly a wind forecast with breezy/gusty winds this afternoon
settling down overnight then picking up once again mid-to-late
Saturday morning to again become breezy/gusty.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR early. Wind SE to NW 10-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for Benton-
     Chippewa-Douglas-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Mille
     Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Strus
DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...JPC