153
FXUS63 KMPX 301945
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
245 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Poor air quality from Canadian wildfire smoke continues into
  Saturday.

- Next chance for rain comes late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Thunderstorms across far-southern this morning have moved into
Iowa as the cold front continues to sag southwards through the
Upper Midwest, with high pressure behind the front leading to
cool & dry weather into this weekend. Unfortunately, a dense
concentration of wildfire smoke is accompanying the cooler
airmass out of Canada, with poor air quality expected into
Saturday. The duration of this air quality event is
unprecedented for Minnesota & Wisconsin as AQI levels in the
Unhealthy (Red) & Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange)
categories are expected to persist for several days as lighter
wind speeds under the high will keep the smoke from dissipating
and mixing out. There will be some times of better air quality
through this period, probably during the afternoons when daytime
mixing may help to dilute the smoke near the surface, but try
to avoid strenuous outdoor activity during the periods of worst
air quality & keep windows closed.

Other than that... you can`t really ask for nicer conditions
for late July/early August as daytime temperatures are expected
to remain in the 70s and drier northerly winds keep dew points
very comfortable in the low to mid 50s. The weekend is shaping
up to be quite pleasant, as current forecasts suggestion the
smoke clearing out Saturday afternoon & our next chance for
showers and thunderstorms not arriving until late on Sunday.
These look to be typical summertime shower & thunderstorm
chances, nothing like the rounds of severe weather & heavy rain
we`ve seen over the last few weeks. Temperatures return to more
seasonable values through next week as ridging begins to build
from the southwest into the central CONUS. Despite the
generally rising heights aloft, a few disturbances could bring
typical summertime chances for showers & thunderstorms through
the week. We may not be done with the poor air quality as well,
as any of these disturbances coming out of Canada could bring
down another round of smoke from the uncontained wildfires
across Saskatchewan & Manitoba.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025

Smoke continues to filter into the area from Canada resulting
in widespread reduction in visibility down to 4-6SM. Model
guidance suggests this wave of low-level smoke moves out of the
area this evening, with another round of similar visibility
reductions looking possible tomorrow morning. Otherwise we`ll
have scattered cumulus through the afternoon with some mid to
upper level clouds overnight. Easterly winds gust up 20 kts
this afternoon & then dissipate after sunset, with winds briefly
becoming more northeasterly overnight.

KMSP...Visibility could briefly drop to MVFR criteria with the
smoke through this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...Chance MVFR Smoke. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR with small chance SHRA. Wind 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA