593
FXUS63 KMPX 140455
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1055 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild for Friday with highs in the 60s with near 70s
  expected long the Buffalo Ridge.

- A cold front will pass through Saturday bringing more
  seasonable temperatures for next week.

- Late Monday and Tuesday, small chances for rain or snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

It`s another very nice day by mid-November standards. Temperatures
have already climbed into the upper 50s southwest of the Buffalo
Ridge by the noon hour as sunny skies and steady winds have allowed
efficient mixing. Mid to upper 50s are expected elsewhere by mid-
afternoon as scattered to broken cloud cover of eastern MN/WI moves
southeast. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s and have bumped up
temperatures slightly given the nearing of the strong thermal ridge
axis to our west. The thermal ridge will center over MN by late
Friday afternoon, allowing for very abnormal November warmth. The
850 hPa temperature anomaly of the thermal ridge will be 14-18 C
above normal as it passes over our CWA throughout Friday. Have opted
to increase highs such that areas near the Buffalo Ridge will have a
good shot at reaching 70. Meanwhile, the rest of our CWA should
reach at least 60 with MSP flirting with the upper 60s. Even with
the anomalous warmth, our 3 climate sites (MSP, STC, and EAU) should
still be about 4-5 degrees below their daily record highs. A strong
cold front will eventually sweep through late Friday night into
Saturday morning; its timing affecting how cool we get overnight.
Decided to also bump up Friday night`s lows into the low to mid 40s.
But this cold front will bring us back to more normal temperatures
by Monday. Highs are forecast in the mid 40s to mid 50s on Saturday
and 40s on Sunday. As for precipitation chances with the cold front,
a few deterministic models and CAMs actually produce light QPF over
western and central MN early to mid Saturday morning. Forecast
soundings also show a brief period of modest saturation such that a
light shower would not be surprising. Have opted to increase PoPs to
15-20% in western and central MN during this time period.

The cold air maximizes Sunday night with lows in the low to mid 20s.
But, temperatures are forecast to stabilize for most of next week
with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows in the upper 20s
to lower 30s. Our next chance of notable precipitation continues to
look uncertain. The upper-level flow that had been northwesterly
will transition to a more split-flow regime by early next week.
The MPX CWA looks to be stuck in "no-mans-land" between the two
jetstreams for the first half of next week. A trough and
cyclone do try to make their way into the Upper Midwest Monday
to Monday night. Though, deterministic models show that the
northern progress of the cyclone has a good chance at being
thwarted by a surface high sliding southeast into the Great
Lakes from central Canada. The second half of next week shows a
bit more promise for precipitation as the upper-level pattern
becomes more amplified. Multiple opportunities for troughs/lows
slide east through the western CONUS in the long-range
guidance. But at this time period, large spread between forecast
models causes large amounts of forecast uncertainty and leads
to a general smearing 20-30% PoPs. It is much too early to say
when and where our next storm system will occur, though long-
range ensembles do give a small hint of something the week of
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Mostly clear and quiet through daybreak. Forecast soundings
still hint at the potential for some patchy ground fog across
the region, however no mention is needed in the TAFs. Southerly
winds increase to between 10-15kts Friday afternoon. High clouds
will increase through end of the period, prior to the passage
of a cold front. The frontal passage and associated wind shift
will occur towards the end of the 6z period and has been
introduced with a 220-240 line at the end of most of the new
TAFs.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10G20 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR, MVFR ceilings possible late. Wind NE 5-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Strus