414
FXUS63 KMPX 172312
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
612 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon, with a few severe
  storms possible across the southwest. Hail and wind are the
  primary threats.

- Dry weekend expected for most, with seasonable temperatures
  in the upper 70s to near 80.

- Warm & humid next week with multiple chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...Early afternoon satellite imagery with
surface obs showed a fair weather shallow cumulus field across the
region, and anticyclonic flow around a broad area of surface high
pressure. Conditions were very comfortably by mid-July standards,
with temperatures near 70, dewpoints near 50, and light winds.

This evening, expect the low clouds to dissipate as we lose the peak
heating, and later tonight high clouds will drift in from the west.
The surface high pressure will track eastward, and this will allow
light southeast winds to develop overnight. This will keep
temperatures a bit warmer than the previous night, with lows in the
50s across the region.

On Friday, southeast surface winds will continue on the back side of
the surface high pressure system. This will bring slightly warmer
and more humid air across the region, in particular southwest
Minnesota. Meanwhile H850 winds will be out of the southwest, and
H500 winds will be out of the west. This will create a favorable
wind shear profile for thunderstorms, but the limiting factor will
be instability. The highest MLCAPE values will be south and west of
the Minnesota River Valley, and SPC continues with a Marginal
risk for severe storms. Could see a scenario where parts of this
gets upgraded to a Slight Risk for an increased wind or hail
threat. Timing for these storms looks to be in the late
afternoon through the evening. Eventually the showers and
thunderstorms will move off to the southwest overnight.

SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...High pressure will build across the
Great Lakes, leading to northeast winds across the region for
Saturday and Sunday, pushing a frontal boundary south of the MN/IA
border. This should bring dry conditions for most, along with
comfortable temperatures. Looking ahead, instability builds again on
Sunday as the front starts to lift northward, leading to chances for
thunderstorms Sunday night. Zonal flow aloft will bring multiple
weak disturbances across the region, and these will ignite
thunderstorms along that frontal boundary. Next week won`t be a
total washout, but uncertainties in timing and location of this
boundary and the storms along it resulted in a prolonged period of
rain chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 553 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The cumulus deck from 5000-6000 feet this afternoon will
dissipate this evening as boundary layer temperatures cool. For
most terminals, VFR should prevail for most of the entire
period. Though, clouds will build in from the west during Friday
morning with cigs lowering to near 3000 feet by the afternoon
as our next wave and moisture arrive. At AXN, MVFR is likely by
Friday afternoon cigs fall to near 1500 feet amid persistent
rain showers. Showers and storms should travel west to east
across MN during the afternoon hours, though precip coverage and
timing in CAMs only warrants PROB30s at this time. Heavier
storms could result in MVFR. Light southeasterly to calm winds
tonight increase to 5-10 knots out of the southeast again during
Friday morning.

KMSP...Have prevailing VFR in the TAF for the entire period as
cigs should fall to near 3000 feet. But, have included PROB30s
for -SHRA from 21-00Z and -TSRA from 00-06Z. Precipitation looks
most likely Friday evening where heavier storms could result in
MVFR.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc morning MVFR cigs. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SE 5-15 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...CTG