584
FXUS63 KMPX 280808
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
308 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat continues through Wednesday, but humidity not as much of
  an impact.

- Best chance for organized storms is Thursday into Friday.

- Rounds of elevated wildfire smoke from the Pacific Northwest
  are expected throughout the week, but chances for surface
  smoke look low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Just to recap yesterday, MSP recorded an 81 degree dewpoint at
2AM (1 degree shy of the all time record) and then after
mixing/drying out during the afternoon, it recorded our first
100 degree day since June of 2022. In a sadistic coincidence,
yesterday was sandwiched between two days where the daily record
is 100F, but had a 104F daily record itself. So we came up
short of a daily record, but it was still a fun day for weather
nerds in the Twin Cities. Eau Claire peaked at 95F, 7 degrees
short of its daily record (102), and St Cloud had a high of 97F,
5 degrees short of its daily record (102).

We remain hot today, with perhaps a chance to over-perform
again in some spots as dew points sit in the 60s. Winds will be
fairly light as a stationary boundary sits across the Dakotas
and southwest MN, and high pressure sprawls out just to the
east. There continues to be at least some indication of
potential for scattered showers to bubble along the boundary in
southwest MN this afternoon. The boundary and afternoon storm
chances then shift to east-central MN and northwest WI for
Wednesday. Temperatures should also be quite warm again for
Wednesday, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.

Thursday into Friday remains our best chance of organized
rainfall, though there are some reasons to be cautious.
Despite PWATs being quite notable (1.6"+), the main surface low
may develop further south into southern IA or northern MO. That
puts the Upper MS Valley in a region of weaker forcing and less
widespread heavy rainfall. To play devil`s advocate to myself
though, the latest deterministic runs of the both the Euro and
GFS show a northern solution with QPF amount of 1"+ across
southern MN. Given our recent inability to see any appreciable
rainfall, I am admittedly more pessimistic than usual. At the
very least, this highlights an area of uncertainty with this
shortwave. It is worth noting too, the SPC has introduced a
Marginal risk for severe weather across western MN for Day 3.
Any potential for storms and severe weather will likely depend
on outflow boundary interaction and cold pool development.

Behind this system, a nice few days of closer-to-normal
temperatures are expected. We do warm up again early next
week, though a building shortwave may attempt to flatten out the
seemingly never ending ridge across the western CONUS.
Depending on how this pattern evolves, it may result in our next
chance for organized precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

No significant weather for all sites. Winds will be at or below
5 kts for the majority of the period, becoming mostly S/SE by
Tuesday afternoon. Mid-high level clouds stream across the
region, with some fair weather cu possible during the day.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR, slight chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts.
THU...VFR, chc -TSRA/MVFR pm. Wind SW 5kts.
FRI...MVFR/-SHRA, chc -TSRA early. Wind SE to NE 5kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED