817
FXUS63 KMPX 071954
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First freeze of the Fall season possible across portions of
  central MN/western WI tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Frost likely tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Temperatures surge into the 70s later this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Current conditions are seasonable with plenty of sunshine across the
Upper Midwest. Our expansive high pressure will continue to promote
light winds and clear skies, which will set the stage for the
coldest morning of the year so far. I have opted to go cooler than
NBM to better represent what should happened. I have blended in a
mixture of NBM25 and hires guidance to lower temperatures. As a
result, temperatures in the low to mid 30s is forecast across much
of central & southern Minnesota. We`ve expanded the Frost Advisory
further south to capture counties most likely to see Frost, those
who fall in the low to mid 30s. Lows in the upper 20s/lower 30s are
forecast along & north of I-94 (Including the TC Metro). Morning
lows in the mid to upper 30s can be expected in western and far
southern Minnesota.

The remainder of the week will experience a gradual warming trend in
response to a ridge building back over the north-central CONUS. High
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s (west) are forecast to
climb into the 70s area-wide Friday through the weekend. This will
mean our high temperatures are 10+ F above normal, but not as warm
as it was last week. Unfortunately, much of this period will be dry
under the ridging aloft, but there are a few chances for precip. The
first chance for a shower/storm will be Thursday evening//night
across eastern MN/western WI as an elevated warm front associated
with a weak disturbance moves through. The next window for potential
precipitation arrives Sunday into Monday as a more pronounced
longwave trough moves across the western CONUS. This system still
has plenty of spread in potential solutions so we opted to maintain
the NBM PoPs for Sunday-Monday timeframe. Long term guidance
suggests that the upper-level pattern will remain active next week
with additional systems in the pipeline. Temperature remain on the
mild side, too. This is supported by CPC`s 8-14 day outlooks, which
feature above normal temperatures and precipitation across the Upper
Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions persist through the period with a dominant high
pressure limiting cloud cover and wind speeds. Northwest winds
will gradually shift more NE/E/SE overnight, remaining out of
the southeast for much of tomorrow.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind S 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind S BCMG NW 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Anoka-
     Carver-Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-
     McLeod-Meeker-Pope-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
     Stearns-Steele-Washington-Wright.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for
     Benton-Chisago-Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Todd.
WI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for Pepin-
     Pierce-St. Croix.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Wednesday for
     Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Polk-Rusk.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BED