536
FXUS63 KMPX 141053
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
553 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers in western MN this morning. Better chance of
  area- wide rain this afternoon into tonight.

- Well above normal temperatures expected Thursday and Friday
  with off and on rain chances into Saturday.

- Quieter weather expected early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Radar imagery early this morning shows scattered light
reflectivities over southwest MN. A few weather stations in FSD`s
CWA are reporting light rain but, as this activity keeps moving
northeast it will run into very dry low-level air (evidenced by the
MPX 00Z ROAB). Thus, most of western and southern will only see
virga to light rain as this morning progresses. However, this virga
will gradually saturate the low-levels of the atmosphere, such that
western and south-central MN should see light rain by this
afternoon. Additionally, CAMs show rain becoming more widespread
this afternoon into this evening as a push of moisture arrives from
the south. Expect bands of scattered showers to form across MN this
afternoon and then spread east into WI by this evening. The rain
should end across most of the area during early Wednesday morning,
but CAMs do show some trailing showers lingering over south-central
MN past sunrise. 0.25-0.5" of rain is probable for most of the
region (aside from our northern counties where slightly lesser
amounts are forecast). Localized areas that see multiple rounds of
showers could see amounts of 0.75-1". With the rain, tonight will
feel chilly with lows in the 40s.

A few scattered showers are possible along the nose of a thermal
ridge in western MN Wednesday afternoon. Highs will be close to
normal in the mid to upper 50s for most of the CWA. Though, 60s are
expected in southwest MN within the thermal ridge. Rain is expected
to intensify and become more widespread across central MN and into
WI during Wednesday night along the nose of the northward moving
thermal ridge. Enhanced southerly flow ahead of an approaching upper-
level trough will cause the warm air mass to push into the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above normal for
Thursday and Friday. Current highs for each are in the mid 60s to
mid 70s! Thursday afternoon could actually be pretty nice as the
rain along the effective warm front moves north, mostly out of our
region, while we see the warmer temperatures and even some peeks of
sun. The aforementioned trough will enter the Northern High Plains
around Thursday night. But, current guidance shows it traveling
northeast into Manitoba/Ontario as it gets blocked by downstream
ridging. We could see a few more chances of rain (and perhaps even a
thunderstorm or two) through Friday, particularly as a cold front
(stemming from the trough) slides east through our CWA. However,
guidance has most of the synoptic scale lift located well to our
north such that widespread, significant rainfall doesn`t seem likely.

Temperatures will return to near normal for this weekend as the post-
frontal cool air settles in. Northwesterly upper-level should
briefly take over to start next week before ridging looks to arrive
over the central CONUS from the west. Temperatures will rebound to
start the work week and we look to remain relatively dry through
this period. However, forecast models do hint of another amplified
trough ejecting east of the Rockies near mid-next week. Model spread
with the evolution and track of this feature is rather large but
this will be something to watch as it could bring a more significant
system to the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Rain showers currently over southwest MN will gradually spread
east during today. Greatest coverage and intensity is expected
this afternoon into this evening with rainfall rates causing
visibilities to fall to MVFR. Cigs will gradually fall into this
afternoon and then abruptly fall to at least MVFR once heavier
rainfall kicks in. Western and central MN (AXN, RWF, and STC)
currently have the best chance at reaching IFR cigs this
evening. Once cigs bottom out, they should hold steady through
the remainder of the period while rain ends from north to south.
Northeasterly winds will turn easterly by this afternoon with
speeds reaching 5-10 knots.

KMSP...Rain showers look to arrive at MSP near 16Z but heaviest
rain (and MVFR visibilities) should hold off until 00Z. MVFR
cigs likely after 02Z this evening. A few CAMs do periodically
reach IFR cigs after this evening but confidence isn`t high
enough to include in the TAF at this time. Also, added some
gusts to 18 knots for the northeasterly/easterly winds this
evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind E 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SE 10-15G25kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc -RA/MVFR. Wind SW 10-15G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG