536
FXUS63 KMPX 121917
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
217 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hazardous air quality this weekend from Canadian wildfire smoke.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Sunday evening. A more
  widespread rain event likely Tuesday night - Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

A broad area of Canadian wildfire smoke has settled in across
the Upper Midwest over the past half day. AQI values are at
Unhealthy levels across the state, & may decrease further with
the arrival of another wave of dense smoke this afternoon. While
it`s an otherwise pleasant Summer day, it would be best to take
precautions and avoid strenuous outdoor activities & remain
indoors if possible. The smoke will clear out of the area
briefly on Sunday, but another broad area of wildfire smoke
pivots through Sunday evening into Monday per the HRRR near
surface smoke field. An Air Quality Alert remains in effect for
both MN & WI counties through Monday morning.

Sunday afternoon will present a slight chance for an isolated
thunderstorm to develop along a weak surface boundary that moves
through. Storms shouldn`t present much impact outside of a brief
shower & a few rumbles of thunder. Wildfire smoke should depart by
Tuesday for those hoping for better air quality. A better chance of
a more widespread precipitation event arrives late Tuesday through
Wednesday night. Guidance highlights a potent shortwave along the
international border on Tuesday & treks eastward through Thursday.
Increasing signal for a broad area of 0.50"+ of rain across the
Upper Mississippi valley region by the end of the work week. We will
dry out with a surface high pressure overhead Thursday & Friday that
should lead to a stretch of cooler than normal temperatures (think
highs in the 70s). Temperatures return to normal next weekend with
another chance for thunderstorms & showers on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Primary concern will be the near-surface smoke this afternoon
through Sunday. Opted for MVFR range visibility at all sites
from the early afternoon hours onward as smoke is expected to
settle across the Upper Midwest through the weekend. Only other
concern is the potential for MVFR-IFR ceilings at EAU where
winds drop off the most while low level moisture becomes caught
under the nightly inversion. Winds turn light & variable
overnight before turning back out of the SW on Sunday at speeds
aob 10kts.

KMSP...Smoke is expected throughout much of the period. Better
low-level mixing may allow for VFR visibility at times, but
prevailing visibility is likely to be in the MVFR range through
Sunday morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH