499
FXUS63 KMPX 261102
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid this weekend with highs in the upper 80s to mid  90s
and heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s on Sunday.

- Unsettled weather resumes late Sunday and lasts through early next
week with thunderstorm chances. Severe storms are  possible Sunday
night.

- Cooler and drier conditions later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 418 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Conditions will be tranquil today but the same cannot be said about
temperatures. Currently, most sites overnight especially across
southern MN struggled to fall below 70 degrees which will become a
pattern for the next couple of nights. Satellite currently showing a
slot of clearer skies that extends from NE MN down to the eastern
Dakotas which bisects a subtle wave over the Dakotas the NW and
another wave to the SE across central IA. An MCV is progged to move
across the mid-Mississippi Valley today. In the wake of its passage,
temperatures will be slightly cooler, add this with southerly flow,
temperatures across southern MN are forecast to be a few degrees
less than neighboring MN/WI counties. Farther west along the border
of MN and the Dakotas, thermal ridging builds and moisture
increases. Forecast highs will reach the upper 80s to low 90s,
especially for areas along and west of the MN River Valley. Heat
indices in this region will near 100 degrees this afternoon which is
reflect with a Heat Advisory through this evening. Farther
east, heat indices are expected to range in the low to mid 90s.
More suspended wildfire smoke (this time from fires in NM) is
expected to advect slowly eastward late Saturday into Sunday.
Impacts to air quality however are not anticipated as HRRR
Surface Smoke guidance look to be more concentrated aloft than
at the surface.

By Sunday, thermal continues to build and head eastward which then
places more of MN/WI beneath the heat dome. Convective contamination
(which could help mitigate some of the heat) looks to be null
and void as 700mb temps exceed 12C. Dew points will make a run
at mid 70s for most areas and low 90 surface temps will be
common. These factors along with WBGT in the mid to upper 80s
has prompted an Extreme Heat Watch to be issued for central and
southern MN and portions of western WI Sunday afternoon/evening.
Heat indices across southwestern MN are forecast to reach the
low to mid 100s and exceed 100 degrees across the Twin Cities
metro. By Sunday night a troughing pattern will reach central
Canada which will aid in flow to turn more westerly. Convection
potential remains likely as shortwaves move about the ridge in
place in the form of either one or multiple MCS`. There is still
uncertainty about how far south this system or systems will
reach but as of now central up to northern MN look to have
better potential to see storms Sunday night into Monday.

Depending on what occurs Sunday night will dictate what occurs
Monday. A boundary is expected to develop which will serve as
another primary source of lift. Take this and mesh it together
with unseasonably high PWATs, very unstable airmass, and with a
strengthening LLJ will support another round of convection.
Troughing over Canada will sag further south into MN which
should force most convection to be closer to the MN/IA border or
farther south.

For the remainder of the week, surface high pressure builds in
allowing for cooler temperatures and drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

VFR. Upper-level sct to few cigs will become SKC later
this morning. Light southerly winds increase by mid-morning with a
few gusts 18-20kt possible at AXN, RWF, and STC. Suspended wildfire
smoke is expected to move from west to east later this afternoon
into the evening. Impacts to visibility are not expected other than
a transition back to high VFR cigs. MVFR Fog is possible very late
in the TAF but did not include this TAF due to lack of confidence of
development extent across sites.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind N 5-10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-
     Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-
     Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Pierce-Polk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...Dunleavy