738
FXUS63 KMPX 050005
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in effect for central MN
  and west central WI through this evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Saturday.

- Relief from the heat and occasional chances for thunderstorms
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Current observations highlight a hot & humid Independence day across
the Upper Midwest. Temperatures range from the upper 80s across
southern Minnesota to mid 90s in north-central Minnesota all while
our dew points are in the upper 60s & lower 70s. Heat indices are in
the lower 90s to lower 100s across the area within the Heat
Advisory. The heat advisory goes until 8 pm when temperatures begin
to cool off but we will have to wait until the real relief arrives
overnight into Saturday. The regional radar mosaic reveals a
supercell along the international border. This cell likely developed
along the warm front that is along the border. Additional convection
is likely to develop across northern MN this afternoon and evening
given 2500-3000 J/Kg MLCAPE, sufficient wind shear, and adequate
lapse rates to support strong to severe storms. These storms will
not impact our forecast area.

Our attention will turn west this evening as additional development
is forecast across the eastern Dakotas along the cold front. These
storms will merge into an MCS that`ll track out of the Dakotas and
into W MN this evening. It`ll slowly track along the cold front
overnight with PoPs increasing after midnight in C MN & E MN and
after sunrise in W WI. Severe chances will be low, but not zero, the
primary concern being gusty winds. Storm/showers will slow as they
approach the Twin Cities Saturday morning. Forecast soundings
suggest the precipitation along the boundary will bring a heavy rain
threat with 1.7+" PW values. A low pressure will move along the
boundary on Saturday and lead to additional development of storms &
showers Saturday afternoon across south/east MN & western WI. Latest
hires guidance highlights the potential of 1-2"+ across portions of
S MN. The front will kick through W WI by Saturday night and usher
in cooler, drier air with WNW flow aloft. Severe chances remain low
with a Marginal Risk on Saturday. The "best" forecast soundings lean
into lower-end threat across far S MN and WC WI.

The remainder of the forecast period looks seasonable with highs in
the low 80s, overnight lows in the 60s, and several weak
disturbances that`ll support localized convection. There isn`t
enough support to highlight any one of these waves, but don`t be
surprised by pop-up storms mid to late week. Guidance highlights the
potential for a larger disturbance that could impact the area next
weekend. Otherwise - it`s a textbook stretch of mid-Summer weather
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

We are awaiting the arrival of the thunderstorms currently over
the eastern Dakotas. Based on recent trends from the HRRR, did
bump up arrival of precip by an hour or two at all terminals.
With near record moisture levels coming in with the front, there
will be a threat for MVFR, possibly IFR stratus behind the
initial round of showers going into Saturday morning, though
this time of year, I like to be more cautious with forecasting
stratus (different story in November!). Certainly there is not
complete model agreement on there being sub-vfr stratus, but
given level of moisture in the environment (PWATS will be over
2"), we should be able to get MVFR/IFR stratus late tonight into
Saturday morning before it begins to lift in the afternoon. As
for the afternoon, we`ll likely see another round of shra/tsra
develop along the cold front over eastern MN/western WI, though
there`s quite a bit of spread in the CAMS with just how far west
the afternoon round of activity gets going.

KMSP...HRRR has shown shra/tsra reaching MSP as early as 8z.
Fortunately, the shra/tsra threat tonight looks to come before
traffic starts to pick up Saturday morning. We could see cigs
dip below the 018 level at times Saturday morning. As for the
afternoon TSRA threat, the 18z HRRR is the most aggressive with
developing the line northwest of MSP, with most other models
having the front far enough east of MSP by the afternoon to keep
that threat east of the field. Still given what we`re seeing
with the RAP/HRRR did include a prob30 for a second TSRA threat
in the early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn & evening -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind lgt & vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Benton-
     Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Hennepin-Isanti-
     Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Morrison-Pope-Ramsey-Scott-Sherburne-Stearns-Stevens-
     Swift-Todd-Washington-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...MPG