220
FXUS63 KMPX 031050
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
550 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer, dry air and breezy winds will create elevated fire
  weather conditions today across western Minnesota.

- Another cold front swings through Monday with showers
  favoring western Wisconsin. Accumulations expected to remain
  under a tenth of an inch.

- Cooler temperatures again behind Monday`s cold front,
  followed by a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Radar imagery shows scattered returns over southern MN and into west-
central WI early this morning. A lot of this activity has been
virga, owing to the deep, dry sub-cloud layer seen in the 00Z MPX
ROAB. However, several AWOSs have reported light rain and GOES
satellite even detected a few lightning flashes near BDH. These
showers and cloud cover will continue to move southeast throughout
the rest of tonight, allowing for a sunny Sunday. Highs this
afternoon into the mid 60s to near 70. The air should also dry
throughout the day in the wake of weak cold front. This will set the
stage for some elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. RHs
will drop below 30% with a large portion of the CWA falling to 20-
25%. Vegetation green-ness and winds will be limiting factors, but
wind gusts will reach 20 mph for most of today. Some stronger gusts
are possible across western MN in the late afternoon/early evening.
As such, have issued an SPS in western MN today for elevated fire
weather conditions.

Lows tonight will only fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s as the
warmer air mass remains. Southwesterly winds will increase during
the night as a LLJ ahead of a shortwave over south-central Canada
translates over the Upper Midwest. Have bumped up winds through
Monday afternoon using a blend of the NBM/NBM 90th percentile. Gusts
in western MN Monday will range from 30-35 MPH. The main energy of
the aforementioned shortwave will pass well to our northeast, but a
strong cold front will move through the Upper Midwest during the day
Monday. A large gradient in high temperatures should occur as the
front passes through during the afternoon. Highs in the lower 70s
are forecast for our southeastern counties while mid to upper 50s
are more likely for west-central MN. Scattered rain showers are also
possible along this cold front, though most of the synoptic lift is
also well off to our northeast. West-central WI currently has the
best chance (20-30%) at seeing showers Monday afternoon. Cooler air
will follow the front, returning us to below normal temperatures
through mid-week. Highs will range from the upper 40s to mid 50s
Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, frost/freeze concerns will be back
on the menu as overnight lows will fall to near or under 32,
particularly Tuesday and Wednesday night.

Fortunately, forecast models don`t show the cooldown lasting too
long, as the heart of polar, continental airmass begins to shift
east the latter half of this week. We should see a steady warmup
with next weekend`s temperatures already hinting to be similar to
what we`ve seen this weekend. As for precipitation chances the
remainder of the period, forecast certainty in rainfall is low as
continued northwesterly flow will limit available moisture. Long-
range models show a few opportunities for weaker shortwaves to pass
through the Northern Plains, but large spread in location and timing
results in very low PoPs after Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected the entire period. Clear skies are
expected for a majority of today. Scattered to broken mid to
high level clouds build in from the northwest during tonight.
Winds will become northwesterly quickly during this morning,
increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts to near 20 knots thru this
afternoon. Winds slow to 5-10 knots this evening while becoming
southwesterly. But, speeds increase after midnight with gusts
sustained values of 10-15 knots and gusts of 20-25 knots.
Strongest winds will be in western MN. Added west-southwesterly
LLWS of 40-45 knots at all TAF sites after 06z Monday as a
strong LLJ moves overhead.

KMSP...Northwesterly winds will gust to 20 knots late this
morning thru this afternoon. Winds turn southwesterly after
sunset, briefly slowing before increasing again during tonight.
Gusts will reach 20-25 knots throughout Monday morning. Kept
west-southwesterly LLWS of 40 knots from 08-15z Monday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR, chc -SHRA. Wind SW to NW 10-15G25 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...CTG