360
FXUS63 KMPX 241841
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
141 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated and brief showers this afternoon across northwest
  Wisconsin and western Minnesota.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures through early next
  week, with a warming trend after that.

- Dry through Memorial Day, rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

A partly cloudy afternoon is on deck with a few isolated showers
likely in western Wisconsin. Showers will attempt to break
through the dry layer in western Minnesota as well this
afternoon, with a little more uncertainty in their ability to do
that. Any showers that do come to fruition will be brief and
shouldn`t ruin any holiday weekend plans. The low pressure
system to our south continues to spill some mid to high level
clouds across southern Minnesota, which is actually limiting
the development of lower level clouds in those areas. The high
pressure over our area will keep our weather mostly uneventful
aside from those isolated afternoon showers today. Winds will
remain variable and light through the period, with slightly
warmer temperatures in the low 70s on Sunday and Monday. With
this in mind, overnight frost concerns are dwindling for the
near future (and potentially the rest of the season). The same
areas that saw freezing temps last night (Rusk County, WI) could
see 30s again tonight, but not quite freezing. Sunday and
Monday will be practically perfect late spring days, with highs
right around normal (mid to low 70s) and partly sunny skies.
Again, areas in southern Minnesota could see more high level
cloud cover as the low pressure to our south overshoots into the
area slightly. Monday will be similar, but with increasing
cloud cover in the afternoon ahead of Tuesday.

Tuesday through mid-week will bring the next shot at some rain.
The ECMWF has between 0.25 and 0.5" at MSP, with the GEFS and
CMC Ens showing similar but slightly lesser amounts for the 48hr
period of Tue-Thu. There are a few members in each ensemble that
are dry through midweek, increasing our level of uncertainty
with regards to amounts. Precipitable water values are near
normal (if not slightly below) through the end of May, tipping
the scale towards a less impactful midweek rain event. The next
signal for a potentially wet period arrives the first week of
June when PWATs tip back towards above normal. After the
midweek chance for rain, temperatures will warm, winds will
remain light and variable, and dry conditions return.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

We`ve see a robust cu field develop, though forecast soundings show
capping in the provide near 650mb, which will limit the depth this
cu can grow. Based on GOES RGB imagery for cloud type, the two areas
where cloud depth is deep enough to get showers is northeast MN and
northwest WI, displaced from all of our terminals, so we have a dry
forecast. Tonight, winds will again be calm with mainly clear skies
away from MKT & RWF. The only potential hazard tonight would be the
threat for some fog along the river in EAU. It`s rinse and repeat
for Sunday with light winds and a diurnal cu field.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR/MVFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind E 5-10 kts.
WED...MVFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...MPG