428
FXUS63 KMPX 111924
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
224 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of scattered thunderstorms possible for
  southwest and southern MN early Thursday morning.

- Best chance for widespread steady rainfall comes Friday night
  into Saturday morning.

- Temperatures to remain very close to normal values through
  Wednesday, then drop below normal Thursday onward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

It relatively quiet today as the surface boundary remains
draped west-east to our south. This front remains mostly
stationary under northwest flow aloft, though it should start
to dip further south as an area of weak, high surface pressure
continues to spread across the Upper MS Valley. Any sort of kink
in the midlevel flow could produce an isolated storm this
evening given the few thousand Joules of CAPE, though forecast
soundings highlight that a shallow moisture profile should limit
any activity for the rest of the day. The latest update to the
SPC Day 1 SWO removed the Marginal Risk from most of Minnesota
and western Wisconsin.

Tonight into Wednesday remains mostly dry ahead of another
chance for nocturnal storms Wednesday night into Thursday.
Latest guidance favors storms developing across central SoDak
and eastern Nebraska during the evening, then diving southeast
through northern Iowa. This mainly develops out of a weak mid
level wave that becomes enhanced along the nose of a 700hPa jet.
This will become a similar situation to last night where we are
tracking the location of the quasi-stationary front and the
developing shortwave. A broad Marginal Risk remains in place
for Wednesday`s severe weather outlook, though for our area, we
expect the main storm threat to be focused across southwest and
southern MN. Given CAPE values will be much higher further south
into Iowa, any convection that does develop may even avoid much
of southern MN altogether as it follows the gradient of higher
CAPE values.

A slightly cooler airmass is expected to move in as we head into
the end of the week with afternoon highs generally in the mid
70s to low 80s Thursday onwards. A quick shot of increased
moisture is still expected Friday into Saturday as an area of
low pressure develops to the W/SW, and PWAT values approach 2"
across southern MN. There is still notable spread across
ensemble guidance, though this will bring our best chance of
steady precip over the next 7 days. The latest NBM QPF amounts
suggest a number of areas could see over an inch of rainfall
over a 30-36 hour period, especially across southern MN.

Heading into next week, we likely remain under northwest flow,
though a building ridge across the western US may begin to
influence a warming trend and occasional storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Other than a lone shower popping up near MKT, we expect to
remain dry through this period with some cumulus forming near
the dissipating stratus over southern MN. Some upper level
clouds are possible stemming from some convection in North
Dakota, generally remaining FEW/SCT250 with some SCT060
possible. Winds become light and variable a few hours after the
start of the period, favoring 070-100 at or below 5kts by the
end. Elected to go aggressive compared to guidance with BR at
EAU due to high RH and no winds, a combo that almost always
gives us some radiation fog.

KMSP...The BKN cigs to the south have weakened and started to
lift, with some FEW/SCT060 cumulus through 21-22z and
dissipating afterwards. Winds become light/variable overnight,
favoring around 090 at the end of the period below 5kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NE 5kts.
FRI...VFR, chc pm -SHRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SAT...-SHRA, chc MVFR/IFR. Wind SE to S 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...TDH