352
FXUS63 KMPX 070353
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1053 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions this week.

- Chance of isolated showers Friday night.

- Summer-like temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Another gorgeous day across the northern plains this afternoon.
Current satellite depicts a few pockets of cumulus across
portions of central and northeastern Minnesota with
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Farther to our
northwest, a band of mid-level clouds is progressing eastward as
part of a weakening boundary stemming from a troughing pattern
over the Hudson Bay. Locally, our main concern this afternoon is
relative humidity values continuing to range between 20-30
percent which serves as the main driver for elevated fire
weather conditions across much of central and southern Minnesota
and portions of western Wisconsin through early this evening.
The aforementioned weakening boundary to our northwest will pass
overhead this evening into tonight bringing only a NE`ly wind
shift and dry conditions. By Wednesday and Thursday, an h85
thermal ridge will retreat southward allowing for highs to be 10
to 12 degrees cooler than today`s highs.

Friday, the aforementioned troughing over the Hudson Bay is
expected to deepen over the eastern Great Lakes region. Warmer
conditions return as another h85 ridge advances well into
Canada allowing for highs in the 80s. Enough forcing looks to be
in place for a few lucky areas (mainly for north-central MN and
western WI) to see isolated showers late Friday night. Saturday
looks to be comfortable with highs in the 70s for most. Sunday
into early next week however will be much more summer-like. One
element that we will need to watch is a pressure gradient that
develops to our west. A stronger gradient will lead to increased
wind speeds. Now, add this to a dry environment could lead to a
few days of potential fire weather headlines.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Solid VFR conditions again expected throughout this duration.
(Only possible exception may be another day of late afternoon
significant visibility drops at MKT, possibly due to nearby
construction kicking up dust/dirt which is impacting
visibility.) Otherwise, high clouds will arrive from the west
overnight through tomorrow but will be of little consequence.
Winds will turn from north to northeast through the period, with
speeds increasing to 5-10kts overnight then to 10-15kts during
the day Wednesday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind ESE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC