723
FXUS63 KMPX 101944
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke moves back in tonight and Monday.

- Increasing signal for the potential for a few rounds of heavy
  rain starting Wednesday night and continuing into early the
  following week as a frontal boundary gets hung up over the
  region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

RAP h5 analysis shows a longwave trough in place this afternoon from
a low over western Hudson Bay, back southwest into Colorado. The
primary warm sector and deep tropical moisture is off over eastern
WI back into MO. With that said, SPC mesoanalysis does highlight a
very weak surface boundary that stretches from Fairmont, northeast
through the Twin Cities and up to the Bayfield peninsula. The RAP
based mesoanalysis has shown 2000 j/kg of sbCAPE along this
boundary, with the HRRR showing the potential for some isolated
showers developing along it this afternoon. The main limiting factor
for seeing deep convection though is the lack of convergence along
the boundary, with light west winds behind the front running into
calm winds east of the surface theta-e gradient. Any showers that do
develop will quickly diminish with the setting sun, with the only
concern for tonight being the possibility for more patchy fog,
mainly for eastern MN and western WI where high surface dewpoints
will remain in place.

For Monday, the weather would be spectacular, if it wasn`t for the
wildfire smoke. Visible satellite along with visibility observations
shows a pretty dense area of surface based smoke over the Dakotas
which will drift into MN overnight into Monday, with the AQA still
in effect for that reason. Aloft, we`ll see a strong shortwave swing
across southern Canada within the mean longwave trough. This will
allow a surface cold front to develop in the Dakotas Monday
afternoon, that will swing through the MPX area Monday
evening/night. Given the timing of the front coming well after peak
heating Monday afternoon, and the better vorticity advection at h5
going across northern MN, this front looks to produce spotty light
showers at best this far south. Behind this front, we`ll get dry
weather Tue and Wednesday as a surface high moves through.

However, the active weather looks to get going again Wednesday night
as a LLJ and associated warm front move into western MN. As this
warm front arrives, we`ll see upper ridging build across the central
CONUS, with not much forcing aloft to push this front anywhere, with
this front likely to be bouncing around the region through the end
of the upcoming week and into early the following week. This far
out, it`s hard to pinpoint where/when individual waves and the front
will be on a daily basis, but the large scale patterns looks to
support the potential for heavy rainfall via multiple rounds of
showers and storms. Something to keep a close eye on as we go
through the week and start to gain a bit more confidence in the
details.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Aside from some lingering showers around the EAU area for the
next few hours, all TAF sites are expected to remain dry this
cycle with mainly VFR conditions. Only variance from that will
be another round of overnight-through-sunrise fog for most
sites, particularly eastern MN into western WI, producing MVFR
conditions (possibly IFR). Winds to remain under 10 kts with
mainly westerly directions.

KMSP...Ground fog looks likely again which may well develop
prior to and during the Monday morning push. Have advertised
MVFR at this point but IFR visibility cannot be ruled out.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC