821
FXUS63 KMPX 201126
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
626 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns to the forecast Sunday evening through Monday
  morning. At least 0.5" of QPF is expected across southeastern
  MN & western WI, with localized amounts possibly exceeding
  1.5".

- Additional rain showers possible Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Clear skies tonight have allowed for temperatures to cool into the
low to mid 30s. Cloud cover will increase throughout today as our
next system approaches from the south, but conditions should remain
dry for the entire region until this afternoon. With highs reaching
the mid 50s to near 60, most of the first half of today will be
relatively nice (despite increasing east-southeasterly winds). Our
storm system to end the weekend still remains relatively unchanged,
with a deepening surface low traveling from Kansas City to Green Bay
Sunday afternoon thru Monday morning. Latest CAMs show rain
beginning in southern MN around mid-afternoon as the precipitation
shield associated with the warm front lifts north-northeast. Rain
should continue spreading north and east, reaching the Twin Cities
by early evening and our remaining eastern MN and western WI
counties 1-2 hours later. Western MN is the only area that should
not see rain as it looks increasingly likely that there will be a
sharp cutoff on the precipitation`s western periphery. Rain should
continue for the remainder of the area Sunday night into Monday
morning as the deformation band on the northwest side of the surface
low passes from southeastern MN through western WI. The low pressure
system will move into the Upper Great Lakes during Monday, taking
it`s precipitation with it. Rain looks to end by late Monday morning
across MN and early Monday afternoon for our northern WI counties.
CAMs and forecast soundings do show the possibility of some snow
mixing in over WI as cooler air from the north gets wrapped into the
low. Accumulating snow does not look likely, though, as models favor
higher snowfall amounts farther north near Lake Superior. Total QPF
for the event looks to be at least 0.5" within the swath of precip
with the highest amounts expected from southeastern MN thru west-
central WI. This is where the deformation band should follow the
warm front precipitation. Amounts in this region will likely be over
an inch with localized areas of 1.5" to even 2" possible. Across
western MN (away from the precip), Monday should actually be pretty
nice with highs in the low to mid 60s and mostly sunny skies.

We dry out briefly into Monday night before an upper-level trough
arrives from the west. Models show scattered rain showers and
possibly even a thunderstorm moving into western MN late Monday
night ahead of a warm front. This activity should continue east
across MN and into WI through Tuesday. Additional development looks
most probable over southern MN and western WI where PoPs reach 50-
70%. This system does not look to be a widespread soaker, but QPF
amounts could reach or exceed 0.5" within the heavier cells. Again,
western MN could see a relatively nice day Tuesday afternoon with
highs approaching the mid to upper 60s and clearing skies.
Temperatures will decrease as one goes into WI where rain should be
ongoing. Highs here will be confined to the mid to upper 50s.
Forecast models suggest Wednesday will be quieter as moisture within
the vertical profile basically gets wiped out following Tuesday`s
system. It could actually be the nicest day of the work week with
partly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s forecast.

Our trend of unsettled weather continues Wednesday night through
Thursday. Weak, southwesterly mid-level flow will evolve over the
Central to Northern Plains as split zonal flow prevails over the
Great Lakes region. While a lot of spread certainly exists between
forecast models, they generally try to develop QPF over the Northern
Plains Wednesday night through Thursday night as mid-level impulses
within the flow arrive. Eventual timing and placement of the QPF
remains in question but, greatest PoPs (near 60%) currently are
placed across southern MN Thursday afternoon when forcing and
daytime heating is greatest. An eventual trough and cold front will
move through the Northern Plains Friday drying us out. Following
that, we look to stay dry through next weekend as upper-level
ridging builds and shifts over the north-central CONUS. This will
also help to warm temperatures to at least slightly above normal,
hinting of a possible near perfect Spring weather weekend ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

VFR and light winds to start this morning. Winds will increase
today with gusts up around 20 knots. Winds will shift from the
southeast this morning to the east/northeast this evening. Rain
will spread across most of the terminals with only AXN likely
to stay dry. As the rain starts a drop in MVFR is expected and
as the rain continues a drop into IFR (timing varies terminal to
terminal see TAFs for more info). The lower ceilings are likely
to stick around after the rain comes to an end, but visibility
should improve.

KMSP...Starting VFR with MVFR to high IFR expected as rain moves
in this evening. There should also be a period with a crosswind
for runway 30/12 this evening into tonight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON PM...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...Chance MVFR/-SHRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...NDC