510
FXUS63 KMPX 051056
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wet start early this morning due to an ongoing round of heavy
  rain.

- Showers and thunderstorms develop early this afternoon and
  may produce isolated damaging wind gusts.

- Lull in the activity Sunday, followed by additional storm chances
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Early morning regional radar displays an impressive axis of showers
and thunderstorms extending from the Minnesota Arrowhead southwest
into the central Great Plains. Fortunately, this axis of
precipitation remained positioned across western MN through
much of this past evening which allowed Independence Day events
to move forward across much of the area. Today will serve as a
bit of a transition day between the dangerous heat of the past
few days (including a record warm low of 81 at MSP yesterday)
and a very pleasant end to the weekend forecast on Sunday.
Between these two modes is the ongoing round of precipitation
mentioned above and what will likely be another round of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon.

The morning batch of rain and isolated thunderstorms is tied to a
shortwave advancing to the east across the Upper Midwest. An
associated deep 850mb fetch through the Plains and into the
western Gulf has advected tropical moisture illustrated by PWATs
near 2" per SPC mesoanalysis. The presence of anomalous
moisture in tandem with ~30kt elongated low-level jet axis has
promoted healthy rainfall rates early this morning, which will
gradually shift east through daybreak. MRMS QPE estimates at 3
AM depict that roughly a 0.5-1" of rain as fallen so far across
western MN, with locally higher amounts (~1.5"+) tied to earlier
convection. Should generally see similar rainfall amounts as
the axis shifts east this morning, however there may be
localized pockets of greater amounts tied to convection (most
likely in association with an MCV over SW MN at this hour).
Rainfall totals may exceed 2"+ for any location that can pair
convective rainfall rates with any training of storms. This
scenario is reflected by the latest WPC MPD`s.

The initial batch of rain will have shifted east into Wisconsin by
mid-morning (weakening/somewhat falling apart per the CAMs).
Our focus will shift to renewed convection ahead of a surface
cold front, which is forecast to move across the region through
this afternoon. CAMs continue to show scattered showers & storms
firing ahead of the front across southeast MN/western WI this
afternoon. Weak shear and stable lapse rates will work against a
greater threat for severe weather. However, guidance depicts
~1000+ J/kg of MLCAPE building ahead of the front, which may be
enough to produce isolated instances of damaging wind. A
Marginal Risk remains in place across far SE MN/W WI to
represent this potential. On the flip side, the forecast should
trend dry following the morning rain across western MN. While
still humid, it should feel a bit better today with highs in
the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Drier air will funnel into the Upper Midwest Sunday, which will
make for a pleasant end to the holiday weekend. Highs are
forecast to top out in the low 80s under sunny skies. I think
the previous discussion said it best... The upcoming work week
appears to be a "textbook stretch of mid-Summer weather
conditions" starting with the return of storm chances on Monday.
We`re not looking at a washout for the start of the week,
however we do anticipate a couple of convective windows tied to
ripples within the zonal flow aloft. SPC has introduced a Marginal
Risk across western MN in the new Day 3 outlook. ECMWF lightning
flash rate parameter simulates this potential convection with a
cluster of storms moving across western/central MN on Monday
evening. More to come as details become better defined. A large
scale shift to more pronounced SW ridging will mean the potential
for additional storm chances for the second half of next week.
Temperatures should be seasonable, in the low to mid 80s for
much of the upcoming period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

First round of rain continues over the easternmost TAF sites to
open the 12z period. The heaviest activity will be over RNH/EAU
initially, with lingering -SHRA likely from STC/MSP/MKT. MVFR
ceilings persist through the morning, prior to the passage of a
cold front from northwest to southeast later today. The front
will be the focus for renewed shower/storm development and the
highest confidence in observing a storm is over the easternmost
terminals. As such have continued TEMPOs at EAU/RNH and have
PROB30s at MSP/MKT. Opted to run with a dry forecast at
AXN/RWF/STC following the departure of this mornings showers.
Winds turn northwesterly behind the frontal passage. Gusts
upwards of 20 knots expected.

KMSP...No major changes to the 12z TAF. Will likely contend
with another period or two of showers early this morning,
followed by the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. MSP
looks to be on the northwest fringe of where storms will
develop, so did not have confidence to convert the PROB30 to a
TEMPO yet.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Chc aftn & evening -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR, chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind W 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...Strus