568
AWUS01 KWNH 070130
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-070700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070129Z - 070700Z

SUMMARY...Concentrated areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of northeast AR and western TN over the next several
hours. Scattered areas of flash flooding are likely, and
especially around the more urbanized areas such as Memphis and
Dyersburg.

DISCUSSION...A well-defined surface low and associated mid-level
vort center continues to lift gradually north-northeastward up
across eastern AR this evening and will be advancing through
adjacent portions of the Mid-South and toward the Lower OH Valley
by later tonight.

The energy is fostering a concentrated area of very heavy rainfall
currently over portions of far northeast AR and along the MS River
just to the west of Memphis, TN. Enhanced southerly warm air
advection and moisture transport is surging northward around the
eastern flank of the surface low and vort center with the aid of a
southerly low-level jet reaching as high as 30 to 40 kts.

This is allowing for a substantial amount of tropical moisture and
at least modest instability to be focused in close proximity to
the low center and also downstream of it nosing across far
northwest MS and into northeast AR through western TN. The latest
RAP analysis shows as much as 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE across
these areas with PWs of 2 to 2.25 inches.

Additionally, some very strong moisture convergence is noted
around the immediate northeast flank of the surface low and vort
center itself, and radar is showing a corridor of enhanced
convection producing extremely high rainfall rates in association
with this. Overall, the larger convective footprint shows
relatively warm convective cloud tops, but over the last hour
there has been a substantial cooling of tops just west of Memphis
where some rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are occurring.

Over the next several hours, this concentrated areas of very heavy
rainfall should still impact portions of northeast AR, but will be
advancing increasingly into western TN.

Expect there to be notable concerns for urban flash flooding in
the near-term around the Memphis metropolitan area along with the
adjacent suburbs as this concentrated axis of heavy convective
rainfall near to the low center advances off to the
north-northeast. Additional downstream areas such as Dyersburg may
impacted as well. Expect in general there to be scattered areas of
flash flooding becoming likely even outside of the urban areas
given rainfall totals that may reach 3 to 5+ inches in a localized
fashion going into the overnight hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   36548906 36168811 35378841 34758980 34599092
            34679124 35139143 35869089 36229023