422
AWUS01 KWNH 100301
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM EDT Sun Mar 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern GA...FL Panhandle to Northeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100300Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to continue into the overnight hours with additional concerns for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a band of very heavy
showers and thunderstorms impacting the Big Bend of FL through
northeast FL, with an emphasis over the last couple of hours on
parts of Dixie, Lafayette and Taylor Counties. The convection is
well aligned with a quasi-stationary front draped across the
region and is being driven by focused low-level moisture
convergence and the pooling of instability ahead of a wave of low
pressure transiting the northeast Gulf of America. Meanwhile,
scattered bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms are also seen
redeveloping across areas of the FL Panhandle and up across
southern GA to the north of this front.

PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches are in place along the front along with
MUCAPE values of about 1000 J/kg. There is a southwest low-level
jet of 30 to 40 kts helping to favor the moisture and instability
transport, and with rather divergent flow aloft noted out ahead of
an approaching mid-level trough, there should continue to be a
focus well into the overnight hours for additional showers and
thunderstorms that should generally track in a west-southwest to
east-northeast fashion.

Overall, the heaviest rainfall threat at least for the next few
hours should continue to be in vicinity of the Big Bend of FL, but
areas downstream toward northeast FL including the greater
Jacksonville area may also potentially see additional heavy
rainfall amounts from some of these stronger showers and
thunderstorms. The 00Z HREF guidance also maintains a threat for
locally heavy rains across southern GA with sufficient levels of
elevated instability and forcing expected to remain in place for
additional small-scale bands of convection going into the
overnight hours.

Rainfall rates with the stronger storms will be capable of
reaching 1.5 to 2 inches/hour, and additional rainfall totals
overnight may reach as high as 3 to 4+ inches. This will yield an
additional concern at least locally for flash flooding, with the
more urbanized locations generally at greatest risk for seeing
impacts.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31858202 31708113 31338105 30808125 29938125
            29748153 29508198 29408313 29848371 29908454
            30298508 30988488 31638356