287
AWUS01 KWNH 110715
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-111312-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1245
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110712Z - 111312Z

Summary...A weak low pressure area is moving inland of the Central
Gulf Coast.  Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are
possible near the coast.  Flash flooding could be isolated to
widely scattered.

Discussion...A weak surface low is near Slidell LA at the present
time, with a central pressure of 1012 hPa.  This movement is being
induced by a shortwave digging across the Southern Plains.  CIN
has been eroding somewhat over the last several hours near and
just inland of the Central Gulf Coast.  Precipitable water values
of 2-2.2" lie in the area per GPS data.  Confluent 850 hPa inflow
is seen to the low pressure system`s southeast.  Effective bulk
shear has been flirting with 25 kts as of late.  Thus far, shower
and thunderstorm activity has been isolated to widely scattered in
coverage.

The expectation is for shower and thunderstorms to increase in
coverage over the next six hours.  As showers and thunderstorms
move inland, the instability gradient near the Gulf Coast should
sharpen as activity stabilizes inland areas.  There is some chance
for short, training bands in this scenario whose focus should
shift east from far southeast LA/MS towards the FL Panhandle as
the low-level inflow veers from south-southwest to west-southwest.
 Hourly rain amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible in
this environment.  This degree of rainfall would be most
problematic in urban areas.  Flash flooding is expected to be
isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   31718741 30858614 29998556 30218664 30148801
            29918849 29088898 28878950 29248965 30148939
            30938900 31408856