745
AWUS01 KWNH 281741
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-282300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
141 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Areas affected...Northern & Central Kentucky...Middle Tennessee...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281745Z - 282300Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, highly efficient thunderstorms capable of
quick sub-hourly totals up to 2".  Given recent rainfall,
saturated soils and urban locales; wide scattered localized
incidents of flash flooding are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Initial rounds of thunderstorms over the Middle MS
and lower OH/TN valleys have started to generate solid outflow
boundaries that are generally shifting eastward into central KY to
NW Middle TN. Nearly full insolation is supporting temperatures
into the upper 80s nearing 90, while deep layer moisture remains
well above normal (mid 70s Tds) and total PWats in the 1.75 to
1.9" range.  As outflow boundary convergence is expected, this
should result in broader, perhaps slab ascent updrafts.  Deep warm
cloud (12-14Kft) and vertical moisture flux convergence will
support wet microbursts capable of 2" totals in 30 to 60 minutes
with reinforcement of outflow boundaries to seek out remaining
instability pockets through the evening and afternoon.   Cells may
have some increased duration of updraft given modest divergence
aloft in the entrance region of the north to south jet streak on
the northwest edge of the larger TUTT (Tropical Upper Tropospheric
Trough) centered near Upstate SC/Western NC.

Recent heavy rainfall/above average rain totals have resulted in
well above average soil saturation ratios of 60 to near 70% across
most of the area of concern.  Generally 1hr FFG values of
1.5-2.25" across the area are possible to be exceeded but in a
very widely scattered `buck-shot` pattern and result in possible
localized flash flooding, with highest probability if cells align
with impermeable urban ground conditions with very high runoff
quickly.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38918487 38558400 37638396 36248520 35528645
            35168717 35228811 35848853 36838801 37698681
            38238606