180
AWUS01 KWNH 270517
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
115 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern KS...West-Central and
Northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270515Z - 271115Z

SUMMARY...An intensifying nocturnal low-level jet will foster a
corridor of heavy, and locally training thunderstorms across
portions of central and eastern Kansas through west-central and
northwest Missouri overnight and into early Monday morning.
High-efficiency rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and localized
storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches are expected. A concern for urban
flash flooding will exist.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery is showing the
development and expansion of cold-topped convection across central
Kansas as upstream shortwave energy/troughing ejects east across
the central High Plains and interacts with the nose of an
increasingly strong southwesterly low-level jet. This is
coinciding with the pooling of strong instability along and
poleward of a warm front across southern Kansas.

MUCAPE values are as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with PWs locally as
high as about 1.25 inches. The increasing low-level jet overnight
in conjunction with strengthening DPVA/jet-dynamics downstream of
the approaching trough will facilitate upscale growth of
convection over the next few hours across central and gradually
eastern Kansas. Some of the latest guidance, and notably the HRRR
solutions, suggests a well-defined surface low evolution from
southwest to northeast Kansas by late tonight which would focus
enhanced moisture transport and forcing up across areas of eastern
Kansas and eventually northwest Missouri early Monday morning as
the aforementioned warm front lifts northeastward.

Given the level of low-level jet energy (reaching 40 to 50+ kts)
and the high CAPE values nosing in aloft, the rainfall rates are
likely to be rather high, and capable reaching well into the 1 to
2 inch/hour range. This is generally supported by the 00Z HREF
guidance, and especially recent HRRR runs. Alignment of the
convection with the deeper layer westerly flow suggests a
favorable environment for cell-training.

The overall consensus of the CAM guidance would favor 2 to 4 inch
rainfall totals with locally higher amounts possible going through
the predawn hours. A concern will exist for urban flash flooding
over the next several hours going through early Monday morning.
Some areas that may see impacts will include the urban corridor
from Manhattan through Topeka and the Kansas City metropolitan
area.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   40249349 39989238 39429199 38939253 38399439
            38179626 38319799 38709869 39199870 39649764
            39979620 40169497