857
AWUS01 KWNH 171643
FFGMPD
TXZ000-172030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0753
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1242 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Areas affected...West Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171640Z - 172030Z

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms producing excessive rainfall
rates around 2"/hr will continue to exacerbate areas of ongoing
significant and locally catastrophic flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to flare up along the eastern
periphery of the pesky MCV that contributed to the catastrophic
flooding in the TX Hill Country. GOES-19 GLM shows storms south of
Ozona continues to show increasing lightning clusters within
cooling cloud tops, indicating storms are strengthening just south
of Ozona. Since the issuance of MPD #752, MUCAPE is gradually
being used up along and north of I-10, but RAP mesoanalysis
continues to show as much as 3,000 J/kg of MUCAPE over the Rio
Grande and near the Big Bend. The 850mb LLJ continues to direct
rich 850mb theta-e air into the Edwards Plateau as well. PWs
remain above 1.8" and effective bulk shear approaching 25 kts is
assisting these storms in maintaining their updrafts and should
linger for at least a couple more hours.

These storms will only cause additional problems in Crockett
country through the early afternoon. With ongoing Flash Flood
Emergencies in the area, another 1-3" of rainfall with locally
higher amounts are expected. Additional life-threatening flash
flooding is possible, including flooded roads, swollen
creeks/streams, and potential flood inundation within homes and
businesses.

Mullinax

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31310089 31110070 30450055 30020093 29900170
            30240208 30730214 31130191 31270156