149
AWUS01 KWNH 152335
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-160533-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0736
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Areas affected...in and near AZ & southern UT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152333Z - 160533Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue
across portions of the area.  Hourly amounts to 2.5" are possible,
which could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
AZ and southern UT, with other inbound activity moving across
northwest NM.  New cells have formed closer to Las Vegas NV.
Precipitable water values are ~0.9" in the terrain and ~1.8" in
lower elevations.  As CIN is developing, MU CAPE of 500-3000 J/kg
exists across the region.  Effective bulk shear remains ~25 kts
near the AZ/NM border.

Due to CIN development, the scope of the shower and thunderstorm
coverage is expected to decrease late this afternoon and this
evening, eventually becoming more restricted to portions of the
NM/AZ border.  Cell mergers and short periods of training would be
the main causes of the heavy rainfall.  Hourly amounts to 2.5"
remain possible for as long as sufficient cell coverage allows for
mergers and training.  Isolated to widely scattered flash flood
occurrences are possible.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38741275 35510836 33340829 31570948 30871076
            32161425 34271493 36951603 38011399