583
AWUS01 KWNH 231334
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-231933-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0981
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
934 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Areas affected...central/southern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 231333Z - 231933Z

Summary...A few instances of flash flooding are expected today
across Georgia.  Heavy rainfall, with rain rates approaching 2
inches/hr at times, are expected through 19Z/3p EDT.

Discussion...An axis of shallow, slow-moving convection was
located along subtle low-level confluence zone extending from near
Peachtree City to Sandersville/east of Macon this morning.
Ascent/convergence along this axis and the presence of a mid-level
wave aloft has aided in persistence of convection across the
region despite modest amounts of surface-based instability (~500
J/kg).  The convection is in an abundantly moist environment (2+
inch PW values), supporting efficient rainfall processes.  Spots
of 2 inch/hr rain rates are estimated per MRMS currently, which
isn`t surprising given the moist airmass and slow movement of
convection along the convergence axis.

The ongoing scenario for heavy rainfall should persist for a few
hours - and perhaps through 19Z/3p EDT today.  SPC mesoanalysis
indicate an axis of deep moist convergence collocated with the
axis of convection that should migrate very slowly or even stall.
Areas of heavy rainfall are expected, and local rainfall totals
exceeding 3-5 inches are possible depending on the persistence of
convection at any one locale.  Breaks in the cloud cover south of
this confluence axis suggests that additional convection may
develop and produce heavy rainfall (>1 inch/hr rain rates) that
may also cause flash flood instances - especially in areas that
received 2-5 inches yesterday in/near Macon.  Flash flooding is
likely given the aforementioned scenario.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33938451 33868302 33228107 32328070 31748183
            31608442 33198502