115
AWUS01 KWNH 110329
FFGMPD
AZZ000-CAZ000-110928-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1181
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Areas affected...much of Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110328Z - 110928Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues as remnants of Priscilla
approach Arizona.  Heavy rainfall will become more widespread for
a few hours tonight, causing instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Mid-level remnants of Priscilla are approaching
Arizona from the southwest.  Ascent associated with the remnant
system has resulted in widespread shower and isolated thunderstorm
activity across western and central sections of the state along
with 0.5-2.5 inch rainfall totals.  The downstream airmass across
the discussion area remains abundantly moist (PWs ranging from 1
inch in the north to 2.1 inches southwest).  Surface-based
instability is maximized across southwestern parts of the state
(1000 J/kg SBCAPE) and becomes minimal with northeastward extent.
The environment continues to support widespread light rain along
with locally heavier rain rates.  Per the latest MRMS data, a few
spots along the CA/AZ border and in terrain-favored areas of
central AZ have exhibited rain rates approaching 0.5 inch/hr.

Ongoing trends are expected to continue through the overnight
hours.  Precipitation may increase in intensity in a few areas as
ascent from Priscilla approaches from the southwest.  The heaviest
rain rates will materialize as convective cells interact favorably
with moisture/instability across southern sections of the state
and orographic ascent locally raises rain rates near the Mogollon
Rim.  Rain rates approaching 0.5-0.75 inch/hr remain a good bet on
at least an isolated basis over the next 6 hours (through 09Z/2a
PDT).  Areas of excessive runoff and flash flooding are expected.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36461134 35660954 33490958 31771059 31851301
            32741462 34551414 35311358