673
AWUS01 KWNH 200243
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-200800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1042 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Areas affected...west-central TX into northeastern OK into
adjoining portions of KS/MO/AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200240Z - 200800Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain will continue over the next
several hours with a particular focus from areas of northern TX
into southeastern OK. Peak/localized rainfall rates over 3 in/hr
cannot be ruled out and an additional 3 to 6 inches may overlap
with locations that have picked up 2 to 4 inches within the past
2-3 hours. Considerable flash flooding with life-threatening
impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery over TX/OK showed a SW to NE oriented
axis of thunderstorms which extended from west of San Angelo, TX
to just north of Ardmore, OK. Supercells were embedded within the
axis and a general SW to NE movement of cells was allowing for
training and high rainfall rates. Recent reporting stations from
Wunderground.com showed 3 to 6 inches of rain has fallen in
Montague County in northern TX since earlier today with rainfall
rates locally at or in excess of 3 in/hr between Bowie and Nocona
over the past 1-2 hours. Most of the convection was located along
or north of a frontal boundary draped across the southern Plains,
attached to a surface low just northeast of Fort Stockton.

The LLJ was measured by a few VAD wind plots in central TX at or
above 50 kt from the south and this southerly flow was overrunning
the baroclinic zone in place. Steering flow pointed toward the
northeast, or roughly parallel to the surface boundary, was
allowing for training and repeating cells. Additional
strengthening of the LLJ (~10 kt) is expected over the next few
hours ahead of a cold front extending southwest from the surface
low near Fort Stockton, forecast to sweep eastward over the next 6
hours. The surface low is forecast to track northeastward toward
the Red River overnight with strong ascent ahead of an ejecting
mid-level closed-low approaching from NM.

Training will continue with a particular focus for higher end
flash flooding possible from portions of northern TX into
southeastern OK. Recent WoFS output has shown high probabilities
(70 to 90+ percent) for 3+ inches extending from northwest of Fort
Worth, across the Red River near I-35 into southeastern OK between
Ardmore and McAlester. 50th percentile values from the 02Z WoFS
showed a stripe of 3-4 inches across this zone and 90th percentile
values (reasonable spot maxima) were 5-6 inches. Portions of the
region over northeastern OK into adjoining areas of KS/MO/AR
received heavy rain early this morning and are more sensitive to
runoff from additional heavy rain, with an additional 2-4 inches
possible across these northern areas of the MPD threat area.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SGF...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37069474 36699427 36169407 35419451 34049574
            33079686 32479782 31739910 30830191 31200255
            32350138 33639939 35429726 36739566