416
AWUS01 KWNH 071746
FFGMPD
NMZ000-072345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1167
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
146 PM EDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Areas affected...Central to Eastern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071745Z - 072345Z

SUMMARY...Scattered slow moving cells capable of 1.5"+/hr rates
and totals over 2", especially near Sacramento Mountains posing
localized incident(s) of possible flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Visible imagery shows the surface to boundary
layer increased moisture indicated by banked up stratus east of
the Sacramento mountains and through the saddle and into the far
southern Sangre de Cristo Range.  CIRA LPW and RAP analysis
confirmed by surface Tds in the mid to upper 50s of this enhanced
low level moisture with nose angling out of the Pecos River
Valley.  Solid upslope is deep enough to have bled through to the
westward adjacent Rio Grande Valley with an effective dry line
noted as Tds drop into the 20s/30s through the Black Mtn Range.

Water vapor suite denotes an elongated shortwave across central AZ
with a weak mid-level baroclinic leaf downstream into west-central
NM angling out from the higher cirro-stratus in the sub-tropical
jet that is centered across southern NM.  The strong directional
shear across the area has resulted in effective bulk shear into
the 30-35kt range in central NM, suggesting organized, broader
updrafts once destabilization occurs.   Currently, the cloudy
nature east of the terrain is limiting insolation but temps
upstream of the terrain in the Rio Grande Valley are reaching
mid-70s and where the moisture stream overlaps, SBACAPEs are
starting to increase over 1000 J/kg.   While upslope flow has not
begun in earnest, the limited capping and weak divergence aloft at
the entrance of the subtropical jet streak has resulted in some
mid-level activity increasing as Lightning-cast Probability are
reaching 60-75% over the next hour with some of the TCu features.
Still believe this is a bit too early for the strongest updrafts,
but these seeds could sprout earlier than the 20z expected
destabilization noted in most of the recent Hi-Res CAMs.

Low level winds should further back and strengthen to 15-20kts and
further enhance deep layer convergence in the Sacramento
Mountains.  Initially anchored updrafts, may result in localized
1" totals, before expanding and slowly decoupling from the
terrain.   The bulk shear suggests some rotation which will
further increase moisture flux convergence to support 1.5"/hr
rates.   RRFS is most aggressive, but does not seem unreasonable,
especially representation of convective mode.  These cells are in
general proximity to burn scars near Ruidoso and any overlap is
more likely to result in FF, but that precision is not capable at
this time scale but locals should remain weather-aware.

As the afternoon progresses to evening, as upstream shortwave
slowly drifting northeast into NW NM toward the late evening,
upslope flow is expected to continue and strengthen
through/westward past the terrain and expand convective initiation
further north and west with time.  Spots of 1-2" in hard pan
ground conditions may result in additional localized incidents of
flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35850583 35650481 34390379 33330365 32630441
            32330510 32350589 32900652 34020639 34720647
            35260626