552
AWUS01 KWNH 171921
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-OHZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-180115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0731
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Areas affected...Ohio Valley and South-Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 171919Z - 180115Z

SUMMARY...Increasing convection ahead of an approaching cold front
will continue into the evening hours. Training activity should to
continue, so scattered instances of flash flooding are likely into
the mid-evening for portions of the Ohio Valley through the
south-central Appalachians.

DISCUSSION...Scattered clusters of heavy thunderstorms are
developing in the warm sector ahead of a cold front along the
middle Ohio Valley with scattered storms over the central to
southern Appalachians. An axis of 2" PW extends east along the
Ohio River to West Virginia with elevated moisture continuing
across the Apps. Instability is more than sufficient for continued
heavy development with MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg in the lower
elevations and above 1500 J/kg at higher. Deep layer Wly flow
around 20kt is present across the area which will aid orographic
lift west of the Appalachian Crest and allow training as the
general orientation of the activity is west-east.

CAMs including recent HRRRs and RRFS have development continuing
at least through mid-evening. Max 3hr totals of 2-4" can be
expected which is well above the general FFG of 1.5" in 3hr in
this vulnerable area of terrain which has been wet in general this
summer. Scattered flash flooding can be considered likely.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...FFC...GSP...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...
MRX...PBZ...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39687939 38257838 35937889 35418105 34948376
            35608457 36678431 37278636 37908654 38818653
            39268503