720
AWUS01 KWNH 140451
FFGMPD
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-141030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Areas affected...Southern OH...Western WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140449Z - 141030Z

SUMMARY...New rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be expected
locally going through the overnight hours. High rainfall rates and
wet antecedent conditions will support a likelihood for some
additional areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES satellite and radar data shows heavy
showers and thunderstorms redeveloping across areas of southern
OH, with this activity attempting to advance into western WV. The
activity is generally developing and/or persisting in response to
broader west to southwest flow advancing across the OH Valley,
with a resulting warm air advection pattern driving the eastward
transport of moisture and instability.

Multiple instability gradients are noted across the region, with
one notable one over southern OH and into western WV where MUCAPE
values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg are noted. PWs are quite high with
values of 2.0 to 2.25 inches, and this environment is supporting
rainfall rates as high as 2 inches/hour with the stronger
convective cores.

The latest hires model CAMs are not overly wet here overnight, but
with the current convective trends and cooling cloud tops,
short-term upscale growth of convection is expected. Rainfall
totals may reach into the 2 to 4+ inch range going through dawn,
and this will be supported by the alignment of the convection with
the deeper layer steering flow which will support cell-training
concerns.

Given the very sensitive antecedent conditions and current
radar/satellite trends, at least scattered areas of additional
flash flooding will be likely over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40348343 40248217 39588097 38938043 38268041
            37848099 37968182 38378260 39018366 39538401