


Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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690 AWUS01 KWNH 120942 FFGMPD TXZ000-NMZ000-121500- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0655 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 541 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Areas affected...East-Central NM... Western Cap Rock/Northern Permian Basin of West Texas... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120940Z - 121500Z SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms with training/repeating with hourly rates of 1.5-1.75" and spotty 2-3" totals may pose localized flash flooding through day break. DISCUSSION...In the wake of the initial bowing convective complex through the northern TX panhandle overnight, the southwestern untapped flank has remained a corridor a enhanced 850-800mb southeasterly moist return flow and providing a modest northwest to southeast theta-E gradient. As the MCS expanded, merged growing upscale into the larger shortwave trough currently centered over SW KS; return southerly 700mb flow intersected the boundary with enhanced 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE due to steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample remaining low level moisture. The 15-20kts of fairly orthogonal isentropic ascent resulted in elongated activation and expansion of elevated thunderstorm clusters. Given deeper level moisture in the 850mb layer, based likely have lowered a bit and tapped greater moisture depth for increasingly efficient rainfall. Rates of 1.5-1.75" are becoming common within the broadening cores; combine this with favorable rear inflow jet orientation to the 700-400mb flow behind the dead bowing segments has allowed for favorable repeating axis over the next few hours. With strongly veered/WAA flow from 850-700mb, propagation vectors may deflect the overall clusters southward from ideal training, but there should be ample opportunity for a few locations to receive 2-3" in the next few hours. Hydrologically, east-central NM remains slightly above average in soil saturation especially from San Miguel/N Guadalupe,SW Quay, Roosevelt toward Bailey/Cochran in the western Cap Rock. Hourly FFG values of 1-1.5" in the west toward 1.5-2"/hr eastward and 3hr values generally from 1.5-3" are at some risk of localized exceedance. As such, an incident or two of flash flooding is considered possible through the early morning hours/day-break Gallina ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35720476 34680306 33450151 32670235 33380359 34380462 35160501