053
AWUS01 KWNH 062132
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-070250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0383
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 PM EDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Areas affected...Kentucky and Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 062130Z - 070250Z

SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy thunderstorms will shift east
over Kentucky and much of Tennessee through this evening. Heavy
rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour from repeating and merging
cells makes a likely risk for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A mesolow over western KY is accompanied by merging
lines of heavy thunderstorms with additional scattered storms over
central TN. This activity will continue to shift east in broad
zonal flow with a noted impulse in water vapor imagery over
western KY/TN. A separate wave of low pressure is along the a
frontal boundary over southern MO.

Low level WSWly flow around 20kt is maintaining elevated moisture
with 2" PW (2 sigma above normal) pooled over western KY through
central TN.  Ample instability is present with MLCAPE of 1000-2000
J/kg along and south of this moisture pool. The activity has
become more perpendicular to the mean layer Wly flow, but new
development ahead of the lines is allow for localized repeating
cells. Enhanced rainfall rates of up to 2"/hr can be expected to
continue which is in agreement with recent HRRR and RRFs runs.
Localized rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is likely through 03Z with
flash flooding considered likely.

Recent development trends have generally been south of central KY
which saw 1-2.5" rainfall this afternoon and is more vulnerable
than the rest of the outlook area. There is a threat for isolated
activity overnight, so further discussion may be needed for
portions of the TN valley overnight.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38098549 37638323 36618183 36058235 34998473
            35498785 36358851 37248789 37918737