933
AWUS01 KWNH 160411
FFGMPD
TXZ000-161009-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0737
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and south Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 160409Z - 161009Z

Summary...Additional areas of significant, life-threatening
impacts from flash flooding are expected tonight through early
tomorrow.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts a gradual
increase in thunderstorm activity across several areas of central
and south Texas from near Junction to Uvalde.  Recent backbuilding
in the part of the cluster near Junction led to brief 2-4 inch/hr
rain rates earlier, likely prompting extreme runoff with MRMS
Flash unit stream flows maxed out just southwest of Junction.
This occurrence isn`t surprising -- the environment surrounding
ongoing convective development features modest steering flow
aloft, around 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, and 1.8 inch PW values, all
supporting slow-moving storms with high rain rates.  The weak
steering flow has led to local backbuilding, and a subtle increase
in low-level convergence through the night (attendant to 25-30 kt
850mb flow developing in the region) will foster more instances of
local backbuilding/training convection through the night.  Areas
of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates should redevelop at times -- especially
from near San Antonio/I-35 westward to the US 277 corridor near
Del Rio and northward into the Texas Hill Country.

These rates will develop over areas that have not fully recovered
from widespread 4-16 inch prior rainfall totals over the past two
days.  Some CAMs suggest local amounts of 6+ inches of rain
through 10Z/5a central, which is reasonable given the scenario.
Widespread flood/flash flood conditions will continue, and new
instances of flash flooding are expected.  Impacts could become
substantial and life-threatening.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32049984 31779841 30479795 28859805 27939834
            27579918 27840000 29070074 29790164 29870242
            30570298 31480273