954
AWUS01 KWNH 290627
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-291200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0824
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
226 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2025

Areas affected...Central/Southern NM...Far Southwest TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290625Z - 291200Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue
across portions of central and southern NM and into far southwest
TX through the remainder of the night. The locally heavy rainfall
will maintain a threat for some additional flash flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite shows an impressive
array of cold convective cloud tops persisting well into the night
across areas of central/southern NM and into far southwest TX. The
convection continues to be associated with a very well-defined low
to mid-level low circulation and associated trough axis.

There continues to be a pool of instability across areas of
southern NM in particular with MUCAPE values of 1000 K/kg, and
this combined with an axis of stronger moisture convergence north
of the 700 mb low center ove far northern Mexico is expected to
help maintain pockets of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity
going through the balance of the night.

Overall, the coverage of convection should gradually diminish a
bit as instability continues to slowly wane, but there will still
be some areas of heavier rainfall rates that could approach 1 to
1.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms. These additional rains
may tend to support some additional concerns for flash flooding on
an isolated basis as a result.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34870613 34570515 33510488 32140523 31120488
            30680508 30730558 31630659 31700774 31690792
            31950810 33120803 34530709