170
AWUS01 KWNH 082242
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-090345-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0366
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
642 PM EDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Illinois into Western Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082241Z - 090345Z

SUMMARY...Scattered heavy thunderstorms will continue to track
over southern Illinois and move over western Kentucky this
evening. Isolated instances of flash flooding should continue
through this evening, particularly for areas that are urban or
have saturated soils.

DISCUSSION...An MCV is over southeast MO approaching the Miss
River while a trough near the MO/IL border is triggering new
thunderstorms where earlier ones occurred today. A blob of 2.1" PW
centered south-central IL with an instability gradient generally
south from where earlier activity repeated over central IL should
maintain current activity and promote further rapid development.

Low flash flood guidance, generally around 1.5"/3hr extends ENE
from St. Louis where heavy rain occurred in the past day (with
only the past few hours for the eastern side of central IL as well
as in western KY ahead of the MCV track. Heavy rainfall exceeding
2"/hr is estimated from the MCV storms which have increased
duration from the tight cyclonic motion.

Recent HRRR runs have a decent handle on the MCV and its eastward
track while the RRFS is heavier with south-central IL activity
(while generally missing the MCV). Flash flooding is considered
possible due to the more scattered nature and decent forward
motion. Downstream discussions are possible given continued
instability in this warm/moist sector overnight.


Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40318964 39758820 38658740 37808699 37368680
            36958645 36698703 36638785 36508850 36728955
            37588981 38769078 39449116 39889060