280
AWUS01 KWNH 242335
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0842
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern NM...TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 242334Z - 250400Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms should
persist through this evening across areas of eastern NM and out
into the TX Panhandle. An isolated threat for flash flooding will
exist given the relatively slow cell-motions and high rainfall
rates.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows
locally broken coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms
impacting portions of the southern Rockies and out across the
southern High Plains. Convective tops continue to expand and cool
overall, and there has been an increase in the concentration of
convection across eastern NM in particular over the last 1 to 2
hours.

Much of the convection has been driven by a combination of
moderate instability within a moist airmass along with relatively
focused convergence along a surface trough across eastern NM up
toward the TX Panhandle region. Localized upslope flow also into
the east-facing slopes of the higher terrain including parts of
the Sangre De Cristo Range has facilitated areas of strong and
slow-moving convection.

The current activity should persist through the evening hours
while gradually exhausting the available instability pool which is
still characterized by MLCAPE values locally near 1500 J/kg. The
PWs are generally between 1.25 and 1.50 inches, and the
combination of this with the instability will still help drive 1
to 2 inch/hour rainfall rates in the short-term.

Slow cell-motions and some cell-merger activity will continue to
support some localized 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts through this
evening. This will support an isolated threat for flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36500409 36230370 35770343 35520299 35980132
            35410096 33800241 33150342 33010458 33680540
            34680563 35540515 36230476