142
AWUS01 KWNH 200737
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-201335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0148
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 AM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Areas affected...north-central Texas northeastward into the
Missouri Ozarks

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 200735Z - 201335Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues from far north-central
Texas through eastern Oklahoma.  Some of this potential should
spread into far northwestern Arkansas and southern Missouri as
well.

Discussion...Three linear convective complexes have materialized
and picked up forward progress along an axis extending from near
Joplin, MO south-southwestward through Ardmore, OK to near
Stephenville, TX and Del Rio, TX.  Because of the increase in
forward speed and upscale growth, the spatial extent of 1 inch/hr
rain rates have lessened substantially over the past two hours,
with only localized pockets noted per MRMS across southeastern
Oklahoma and west-central Texas.  Nevertheless, these rates are
falling on areas of lowered FFGs from prior rainfall over the past
24-36 hours.  MRMS Flash responses also remain elevated from
Jacksboro to Ardmore and near Muskogee.  The orientation of
ongoing MCSs will allow for rainfall to repeat across these areas,
preventing any recovery from earlier flash flooding in these areas
and potentially worsening runoff in some spots.

The ongoing MCSs should continue to move eastward, but models
suggest potential for stalling of forward progress especially
across eastern OK/northwestern AR as a closed upper low hangs back
over New Mexico.  The slowing MCSs and areas of convective mergers
should allow for continued flash flood potential especially in
areas that received prior heavy rainfall.  Again, FFGs remain
lowered from eastern OK into northwestern AR from 3-8 inches of
antecedent rain, and 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue at
least on a spotty basis for the next 3-6 hours across the
discussion area.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38009189 37309158 36289193 35639271 34299488
            33119599 32899779 33159847 34069822 34929741
            36579591 37579364