462
AWUS01 KWNH 122018
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-130216-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0396
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast NM & the TX Big Bend

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 122016Z - 130216Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across the region.  Hourly rain amounts up to 2" are possible
where storms are stationary, merge, or train.

Discussion...CIN is eroding across the region presently which is
leading to an uptick in shower and thunderstorm coverage, and the
mesoscale guidance has done a good job with the timing of
convective initiation.  A weak shortwave lies to the south and
southwest of the region in northeast Mexico.  Precipitable water
values are 0.9-1.5".  Pockets of ML CAPE exceed 2500 J/kg.
Effective bulk shear is around 25 kts.  Somewhat lower
temperatures at 700 hPa today seem to be fostering greater
convective coverage.

The mesoscale guidance shows convection moving slowly/meandering
across the region over the next several hours.  The concern is
that with sufficient coverage, cell mergers would become more
frequent which would enhance the heavy rainfall.  In this
environment, hourly amounts up to 2" are possible.  Flash flood
occurrences could be isolated to widely scattered.  This would be
most problematic in rough terrain and in the vicinity of burn
scars.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   33980505 33570413 32510328 31120284 29600254
            28910318 29450437 29950479 30560506 31110586
            31670659 32380681 33910601