393
AWUS01 KWNH 060741
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-061340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1159
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 AM EDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Areas affected...South-Central LA into Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060740Z - 061340Z

SUMMARY...Localized backbuilding and training of warm-topped
convective bands early this morning across south-central LA up
into southwest MS may produce some isolated flash flooding
concerns.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction
with radar shows multiple warm-topped bands of very heavy showers
and a few thunderstorms impacting portions south-central LA up
into far southwest MS. The convection is associated with
increasingly convergent flow around the eastern flank of a low to
mid-level vort center lifting gradually northward into the Lower
MS Valley.

Locally enhanced moisture convergence is especially noted across
southwest MS right now, with a nose of MUCAPE values reaching 500
to 1000 J/kg stretching northward from the central Gulf Coast up
into southwest MS in close proximity to a surface trough. A
southerly low-level jet reaching 30 to 40 kts is noted around the
eastern flank of the vort energy, and with weaker deep layer mean
flow across the region, the Corfidi vectors are strongly
supportive of an environment for backbuilding convection. This is
being evidenced right now with the latest radar trends and
especially with the convective cells/banding occurring over parts
of south-central LA.

PWs are quite high and locally upwards of 2 to 2.25 inches, and
with this deep tropical environment along with elevated WBZ
heights, some of the rainfall rates may reach 2 to 3 inches/hour.
Given the alignment of the convection with the deeper layer
southerly flow regime, there will be cell-training concerns at
least locally. Going through early this morning, there may be some
localized 3 to 5+ inch rainfall totals that materialize. This may
result in at least some isolated concerns for flash flooding and
especially if any of the more urbanized areas are impacted.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   32789084 32249005 30908996 29759052 29529126
            29819175 30439172 31349151 32309151