634
AWUS01 KWNH 020129
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-020725-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0103
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
929 PM EDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Areas affected...northeastern KS into MO River Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020126Z - 020725Z

Summary...Training of cells from SW to NE may result in localized
flash flooding from portions of northeastern KS into the middle MO
River Valley. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr within areas of training
will be common and there will be potential for 2-4 inches through
07Z.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery has shown an increase over the
past 1-2 hours in the number of showers/thunderstorms over the
central Plains, out ahead of a deepening surface low located
between RSL and K82 at 01Z. An already strong 850 mb low level jet
of 40-50 kt was observed over central KS/OK with rapid low level
moisture transport underway into the central Plains, resulting in
a 500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE increase over southeastern NE into
eastern KS since 22Z (via SPC mesoanalysis). 00Z blended TPW
imagery showed modest moisture over KS/NE with PW values of 0.7 to
0.9 inches, but these values are likely to continue increasing
through the early overnight with the continued advection of
moisture.

850 mb winds are forecast to notably strengthen through 06Z over
OK/KS to over 70 kt locally, yielding increasing MUCAPE along and
west of the Missouri River, with 1000-2000 J/kg becoming common by
04-06Z via recent RAP forecasts. Increasing ascent ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough near the Four Corners region will be
accompanied by strengthening diffluence and divergence aloft as a
powerful jet stream rounds the base of the trough and ejects out
into the central Plains through 06Z. Convection is expected to
rapidly expand in intensity over central to northeastern KS over
the next 1-2 hours.

In addition, strengthening low level convergence at the nose of
the low level jet is expected to set up over northeastern KS from
SW to NE (consistent RAP signal in 925-850 mb layer), oriented
nearly parallel to the expected mean steering flow of individual
cells, supporting the potential for training. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr will be likely within areas of training and localized
2-4 inch totals through 07Z may support isolated flash flooding.

The HRRR has been persistent in forecasting locations from near
Salina to the MO/NE border for heavy rain. The 00Z WoFS guidance
also indicates these same locations with 40-60 percent
probabilities of exceeding 2" through 06Z. However, dry antecedent
conditions will likely limit flash flood coverage to urban
locations or otherwise locally sensitive terrain.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41129452 40769397 40249387 39349503 38509745
            38689834 39349822 40279690 40939563