038
AWUS01 KWNH 200802
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-201400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1234
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

Areas affected...northeastern TX, southeastern OK into
south-central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200800Z - 201400Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across
portions of northeastern TX, southeastern OK into south-central AR
through the early morning hours. 2 to 4 inches of rain in 2-3
hours is expected within idealized training, but the threat is
expected to primarily exist across urban areas or other locations
with poor drainage.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were observed on 0730Z
radar/infrared satellite imagery over portions of northern TX into
southern OK. These storms were located beneath broad southwesterly
flow aloft, with low level warm advection helping aid ascent over
the region. While forcing for ascent was not strongly defined over
any particular region of TX/OK/AR, leading to a somewhat
disorganized pattern on radar imagery, trends have shown an
increasing coverage in the number of cells over the past few
hours, with movement off toward the northeast. MLCAPE was between
500-1500 J/kg with varying degrees of CIN, though many of the
ongoing cells were likely a bit elevated above the surface.
Moisture values were anomalously high for mid-November with
GPS-derived PW values between 1.5 to just over 1.7 inches as of
06Z in and around the Dallas-Fort Worth region.

Continued low level warm advection with transient axes of low
level convergence are likely to maintain scattered thunderstorms
with areas of short term training capable of producing 1 to 2
inches of rain in an hour, and 3-hr totals of 2 to 4 inches. Mean
movement of small thunderstorm clusters should continue off toward
the northeast but upstream development and training will
potentially result in flash flooding should these higher rainfall
totals overlap with an urban or otherwise poorly draining
location.

The 06Z and 07Z WoFS seems to have locked onto a signal for higher
rainfall potential with the 07Z cycle indicating a 40-50 percent
chance of exceeding 3 inches through the 11-12Z time frame within
an axis covering northeastern Dallas County into southern Collin
County. However, given a lack of rainfall over at least the past
2-3 weeks, flash flood guidance is relatively high which should
limit the coverage of flash flooding over the next 3-6 hours.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...MEG...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   35659111 34999049 34359073 33769204 32719464
            32339727 32669814 33959781 35169407