049
AWUS01 KWNH 022349
FFGMPD
NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0855
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
748 PM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...East-central AL...Northwest GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022350Z - 030530Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/stationary convection along and west of
`cold-air` damming boundary capable of 1.5-2"/hr rates and
localized 2-4" totals.  Localized flash flooding remains possible
through early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Interesting synoptic setup shows deeper layer frontal
zone across southern AL/GA is reinforced by outflow form initial
convection; yet persistent northeasterly flow through the
Carolinas into Georgia resembles a `cold-air` damming flow regime
with solid anticyclonic turning of the surface flow strengthening
FGEN from near Columbus, GA across E AL through the upslope of the
Southern Appalachians.  Anafrontal moisture remains in the lowest
levels with solid low 70s Tds as far north as SE TN/W NC.
Clearing throughout the day has maintained sufficient insolation
resulting in a MLCAPE axis along and west of the confluence/`CAD`
boundary.  Values of 1000 J/kg near the GA/NC/TN border increase
over 2000 J/kg toward central AL just north of the surface front.
While deep layer moisture is reduced relative to along and south
of the front, values remain in the 1.75-2.25" range (similiarly,
north to south).

Recent deeper layer convergence along within the axis has resulted
in greater convective development coverage, but is also aiding low
level moisture flux to developing cells.  Rates of 1.5-2"/hr are
likely to become more prolific, as updraft maintenance is aided by
favorable diffluent/divergent flow aloft.  Additionally, deep
layer flow is generally weak and opposed in directions generally
just below 700mb; and in general along and just east of the CAD
boundary axis.  This should result in 5-10kts of storm cell motion
with cells further south perhaps even retrograding toward the
850mb low just north of Columbus, GA.  As such, this may result in
scattered pockets of 2-4" totals.

FFG values are lower along the spine of the Southern Appalachians
with 1.5"/hr & 2-2.5"/3hr values which may have a higher potential
for exceedance.  Further south, values are a bit higher, but
slightly higher rates/instability, etc may still result in
scattered incidents of flash flooding as well.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   35338487 35328447 34958376 34298381 33698420
            32988390 32508396 32388496 32048558 32078643
            32338740 32798737 33168703 34348621 34898572