971
AWUS01 KWNH 031708
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-032305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0860
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
107 PM EDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern FL, southern GA, and southeast
AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031705Z - 032305Z

SUMMARY...Numerous thunderstorms capable of intense rainfall rates
up to 3"/hr are beginning to develop within a moisture-rich
atmosphere across northern Florida as well as southern Alabama and
Georgia. These rainfall rates and the potential for maximum
rainfall totals of 4-6" could lead to scattered instances of flash
flooding, especially if they intersect with urban locations.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and GOES-East visible satellite
imagery depict a well-defined stationary front located across
southern GA and AL this morning, along with an attached surface
low pressure system near the western FL Panhandle. Radar mosaic
across the Southeast shows widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity south of this frontal boundary across northern FL, while
recent scans highlight thunderstorms beginning to fire along the
front as well. Atmospheric conditions in the region include PWs of
2.2-2.5" per SPC`s mesoanalysis at 16Z, as well as SBCAPE values
ranging from 2,500-4,000 J/kg (highest across northeast FL). The
flow pattern is highlighted by mean layer winds around 10-15kts
out of the west-southwest, with these winds veering with height as
expected in this warm air advection regime. Thunderstorms
along/near this boundary across southern GA and northern FL may
exhibit repeating tendencies given the orientation of the mean
layer winds along the frontal boundary. Additionally, closer to
the surface wave over the western FL Panhandle, storms are more
likely to remain somewhat stationary as mid-level flow becomes
very weak near a weak upper trough/shortwave extending northward
into the TN Valley.

12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities are pretty robust (40-80%) for
rainfall amounts exceeding 3" per 3-hours through 21-00Z this
evening and also include 20-30% chances for 1-hour totals to
exceed 3", which would imply even heavier sub-hourly rates. Most
of this part of the Southeast U.S. can handle heavy rainfall (3-hr
local FFG between 3-5"), but once hourly rates near or exceed
3"/hr scattered flash flooding or ponding of water becomes a
potential. This is especially the case should intense rainfall
overlap with urban centers. The greatest chances for these rates
to materialize appear to be around and after 21Z once convection
becomes more defined and focused near the stationary front.

Snell

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32268498 32008378 31628227 31238128 30628117
            30168132 30088182 30318275 30228362 29648453
            29518500 29658539 29968575 30268625 30488683
            31298701 31898660 32228590