439
AWUS01 KWNH 271831
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-272330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0862
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern Delmarva...Eastern Virginia...Eastern
North Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271830Z - 272330Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving/retrograding efficient rainfall producing
cells with 2"/hr rates allow for localized 2-3.5" totals in
short-duration.  Recent heavy rains have saturated soils and so
run-off could be higher than normal.  Localized FF is possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows a narrow larger scale trough
entrenched over the Eastern U.S. Seaboard, but upstream shortwave
energy is digging with a 90kt jet trying to descend south of the
tough resulting in increased sharpening of the trough with a
slight retrograde noted.  As the streak drops south the rapid
cyclonic curvature allows for very sharp but divergent pattern
from southern NJ through the northern Outer Banks of NC; However,
with solid upstream 15-20kts of low level flow converging on the
core of remaining moisture axis (1.5-1.8" TPW) that lays in the
mid to upper-level trough axis.

Solid insolation allowed for increased temperatures and
conditionally unstable air with 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across
the Chesapeake Bay to the Coastal Plain of North Carolina.  That
upstream cyclonic convergence, opposed by developing sea-breeze
resulted in broad area of solid development in SE VA into NE NC
but more scattered further north in the line through the southern
Delmarva Peninsula.  Given proximity to the trof, steering flow is
very weak and propagation is actually slightly west (and south
from the Albemarle sound and southward).   Given this increased
residency of heavy rainfall capable of 1.75-2"/hr has potential
for localized 2-3.5" totals in 2-3 hours.

Most of the region has been recently wet with soil saturation
ratios still well above normal (near 90th percentile in SE VA/NE
NC), so while the FFG values have rebounded to normal given
sandier ground conditions; the higher saturation may limit
infiltration especially at the higher rates that localized rapid
inundation flooding remains possible. through the afternoon into
evening.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38437551 38287503 36807574 35397544 34627640
            33897773 34317825 35617741 36237703 36927675
            37427665 37857651 38077630 38417602