765
AWUS01 KWNH 240018
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-240500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0836
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
816 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Areas affected...Southern UT...Much of Central and Northern
AZ...Western NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240016Z - 240500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of monsoonal showers and thunderstorms
will continue through this evening. Locally high rainfall rates
will continue to support a threat for mainly isolated areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows
monsoonal showers and thunderstorms continuing to impact areas of
western NM up through the Mogollon Rim area of central and
northern AZ, and locally up across southern UT. Some of the
convection has been trending a bit more focused across northwest
AZ to the east of Kingman as some better defined outflow boundary
activity has pushed westward and away from the Mogollon Rim itself.

There are still some pockets of MLCAPE values reaching 1000 to
1500 J/kg, and this instability and proximity of multiple
colliding outflow boundaries in addition to orographics should
still facilitate a persistence of scattered convective clusters
going into the evening hours.

Rainfall rates of as much as 1 to 2 inches/hour will still be
possible over the next few hours, with a couple of spotty 2+ inch
totals not out of the question. This should support an isolated
threat of flash flooding, which may include impacts to any local
burn scar areas, slot canyons and normally dry washes.

Orrison

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38171210 37801081 37161011 35970948 35020844
            33970765 33140747 32490798 32350883 32611008
            33661182 34101355 35071419 36591405 37821343