172
AWUS01 KWNH 151911
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-160109-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Areas affected...portions of Colorado, New Mexico, and
southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 151909Z - 160109Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage and pose a flash flood risk through at least 00Z/6p
mountain daylight time.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite imagery depicts thunderstorm
development on a scattered basis primarily along terrain-favored
peaks/ridges from central Colorado southward through south-central
New Mexico.  Initial development so far has been concentrated in
areas of high storm bases (PW values of around 1 inch) and around
500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE.  Weak steering flow has encouraged slow
storm motions, and MRMS radar estimates of 0.5-1 inch/hr have
already been noted - primarily due to slow cell movement.

Models/CAMs suggest that convection will continue to mature and
increase in coverage through the early evening hours while
drifting slowly northeast.  As cells migrate eastward, they`ll
encounter PW values (particularly east of the CO Front Range,
where 1.25+ PW values exist) increasing likelihood of additional
areas of heavy rainfall.  Multiple storm mergers/backbuilding are
expected, which should also prolong heavy rain rates locally.  FFG
thresholds near the storms and immediately downstream of are in
the 0.5-1 inch/hr range and should be readily exceeded at times.
Some storms may also interact with burn scars that have readily
supported excessive runoff and significant flash flood impacts,
and additional impacts are also possible.  Flash flooding is
expected in several areas through 6p mountain time and beyond
given the regime.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...CYS...EPZ...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   41980403 41230294 40090260 38370285 37010360
            35560439 33920490 32900534 32700588 33440634
            35640623 36990687 37960719 39830692 40900656
            41940534