423
AWUS01 KWNH 051925
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060124-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0326
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
324 PM EDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Areas affected...western Oklahoma through western north Texas, the
eastern Texas Panhandle, and surrounding areas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051924Z - 060124Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are producing heavy
rainfall, with rain rates of 2 inch/hr noted beneath stronger
storms.  Flash flooding is possible on an isolated basis.

Discussion...Strong insolation has support sufficient instability
for robust thunderstorm development generally along an axis from
just west of Abilene (Snyder), TX north-northeast to near Enid,
OK.  The storms are in an environment with very weak shear (mean
flow generally less than 15 knots across the discussion area), but
strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE) and abundant moisture (1.7
inch PW) supporting deep updrafts and locally heavy rain. Forcing
for ascent is weak, although objective analyses depict a very weak
mid-level shortwave trough and vorticity max over western Oklahoma
that was likely providing ascent to support the deeper convection
currently developing.  Peak rain rates of 2 inches were occurring
in spots, which is generally falling below FFG thresholds of 2-2.5
inch/hr (locally lower in west-central Oklahoma though).

The ongoing scenario supporting isolated instances of flash
flooding should continue for several more hours.  Strong
insolation will continue to maintain large instability across the
discussion area, while localized/expanding cold pools support
newer updrafts across the discussion area with time.  Cell motions
should be slow and at times erratic.  Flash flood potential will
be locally enhanced in areas of favorable cell mergers that can
prolong rain rates in any given locale.  The isolated flash flood
risk should wane some after sunset/02Z or so.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   36759724 35159732 33379860 32040037 32870097
            34870118 35730050 36089980 36659891