695
AWUS01 KWNH 241942
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-250130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1123
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
341 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Utah and Western Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241941Z - 250130Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over Utah and
Colorado will likely cause terrain-driven flash flooding through
this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms have formed along
many of the mountain ranges from eastern Utah through western
Colorado this afternoon. Some of these storms have formed in
flood-sensitive areas, including burn scars, slot canyons, and
steep flood basins among the numerous terrain features of this
area. Thus, as on previous days, it should not take much storm
formation, given their slow movement, to result in flash flooding.

MUCAPE values in this area are generally between 500 and 1,000
J/kg. While very low in many areas east of the Continental Divide,
here given the favorable hydrology, this should be sufficient
instability to allow at least pop-up storms to continue on the
terrain. Swift WSW flow in the upper levels, to the tune of 35-50
kts, should keep the storms that form well-ventilated. PWATs
around 0.75 inches will also support the storms at times doing a
chain-reaction along the north-south aligned ranges this afternoon
and favoring a slow eastward movement/building for any east-west
ranges. This is due to the prevailing westerly wind regime to the
north of the large ridge near the NM/TX border.

Hi-Res guidance supports the widely scattered nature of the
convection, where any convection forms along the terrain, but
clusters of storms riding the initial storms` cold pools can allow
for some east to northeast building of those clusters through the
afternoon. By evening, with the loss of daytime heating, storm
coverage and intensity should wane.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...BOU...GJT...PUB...RIW...SLC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   41470989 41310900 40470745 39970617 39990594
            39880537 39810512 39600504 39410510 38840531
            38600538 38330545 38080517 37830487 37340460
            36760446 35940493 36470552 36520618 37100700
            37230749 37390807 37520833 37790875 37770952
            37690993 37811064 38861136 39071201 39121211
            39161214 39631180 40361119 41061081