088
AWUS01 KWNH 040019
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0115
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
818 PM EDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...ArkLaTex into central/eastern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040014Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...While near term flash flooding appears likely over the
next 1-2 hours from central to eastern AR, uncertainty remains
back toward the southwest in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex. There
is some potential for thunderstorms to develop in this region and
track northeastward into areas of AR over the next few hours,
reinvigorating a threat for flash flooding across the region.

DISCUSSION...00Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms over
central and eastern AR, advancing toward the northeast with little
in the way of redevelopment back to the southwest. The activity
was occurring north of a well-defined stationary front that
extended SW across southern AR into northeastern TX.

Rainfall rates of 1 to perhaps 2 in/hr will remain possible,
maintaining the flash flood threat over central/eastern AR for
another 2 hours or so. This activity is occurring ahead of a low
to mid-level shortwave noted in LPW imagery with drying in the
850-700 mb layer in its wake.

While some weak subsidence is likely occurring in the wake of the
convective activity moving through AR, moderately strong and
uninhibited MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg was estimated just south
of the stationary front over eastern TX into northern LA (via SPC
mesoanalysis data from 00Z). A forcing mechanism is uncertain
however and 850 mb winds are forecast by the RAP to weaken from
their present 30-40 kt to 20-30 kt through 06Z and some weak
subsidence is likely occurring over the region in the wake of the
aforementioned shortwave. Nonetheless, the environment is quite
unstable and sufficiently moist to support thunderstorms with
potential for heavy rain.

Should convection initiate in the next 1-2 hours, there will be
potential for rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr, with storm movement
toward the northeast into portions of the region that have been
hit with heavy rain over the past 24-48 hours, possibly reigniting
a threat for flash flooding. However, the threat appears to be
lowering given the near onset of nocturnal cooling at the surface
and lack of visible triggers.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35219184 35099086 34539046 33079260 32209480
            32469541 33629469 34659346 35099257