419
AWUS01 KWNH 052236
FFGMPD
AZZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0598
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052230Z - 060300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered heavy thunderstorms producing up to 1.5"/hr
rainfall rates may cause additional areas of flash flooding this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have broken out across southeast
Arizona thanks to a sheared off 500mb vorticity and remnant
moisture associated with Flossie. 500mb winds are oriented out of
the SW and are aiding in some upslope-enhancement along the ridge
lines of southeast Arizona and northern Sonora. Modest instability
is present with RAP mesoanalysis showing as much as 1,000-2,000
J/kg of SBCAPE. There is also sufficient moisture in place for
storms to be effective rainfall producers, thanks to the remnant
moisture of Flossie boosting PWs to as high as 1.3-1.5". Storms
will continue to produce locally excessive rainfall rates up to
1.5"/hr in some cases. Even if rainfall rates are closer to 1"/hr,
this is generally close to the 1-hr FFGs and any training along
local mountain ranges could cause some rainfall amounts to range
between 2-3". Storms should dissipate not too long after sunset,
but until then, additional flash flooding is possible for the
remainder of the afternoon. Areas most at risk are along
rugged/steep terrain and in dry washes.

Mullinax

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32860995 32570943 32040916 31380926 31160968
            31151028 31181109 31341183 31821198 32261169
            32751085