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AWUS01 KWNH 010802
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-011400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0292
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Areas affected...Much of Missouri into Southwestern Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010800Z - 011400Z

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms over Missouri continue to
pose a flash flooding threat as they increase their eastward
motions across the state. Flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION...Impressive instability persists across much of
Missouri with over 3,000 J/kg of MLCape across western Missouri. A
sharp instability gradient roughly follows the Missouri/Illinois
border near St. Louis. SPC Mesoanalysis shows PWATs roughly around
1.5 inches over much of Missouri, albeit a bit less in the
southwestern corner of the state south of Joplin. This should be
sufficient moisture to allow the storms to persist, especially
given the ample instability the storms still have to work with.

The cluster of storms that stretches from Kansas City east between
I-70 to the south and US-36 to the north consists of multiple sets
of training cells. Fortunately, other than the Kansas City metro,
much of this area is rural, which should preclude much impactful
flash flooding. 1-hourly FFGs also increase to the east to up to
2.5 in/hr. Further, while the coverage of storms still supports a
flash flooding risk in that corridor of northern Missouri, the
individual cells are increasing their eastward forward speed. This
too should limit the flash flooding risk going forward. Meanwhile,
a new cluster of storms appears to be forming along the
Mississippi River, and appears likely to congeal into a line over
or near St. Louis. This will reintroduce an urban flash flooding
threat.

The CAMs continue to struggle with resolving all of the various
clusters of storms, but those that are showing some depiction of
the developing line of storms along the Mississippi River suggest
the storms will struggle to move east of the Mississippi River
into southern Illinois. While the instability will advect into
southern Illinois gradually with a southwesterly low-level jet,
that should mark the rough eastern edge of any flash flooding
threat, as any storms that progress too far into Illinois should
weaken with time as the instability rapidly drops to near zero

For southern Missouri, the flash flooding threat will be much more
conditional. The cluster of storms in the southeast corner of
Kansas has generally developed into a line oriented orthogonal to
the storms` motions. This should greatly reduce the flash flooding
threat they will pose as they move into southern Missouri.
Nevertheless, with a few urban centers such as Joplin and
Springfield ahead of this line, an isolated flash flooding threat
can`t be ruled out.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   39739270 39689193 39729127 39489052 39108954
            38598918 38108878 37598897 37208941 36949095
            36749283 36819372 37009460 37039490 37069538
            37119602 37859546 38019498 38329468 39019476
            39659424