067
AWUS01 KWNH 021815
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-030015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0852
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern TN...far western NC...northwest
GA...northeast AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021815Z - 030015Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms developing north of a stationary
front and along a surface trough near the western slopes of the
southern Appalachians and far eastern Tennessee Valley are
expected to be slow-moving and potentially contain rainfall rates
around 2"/hr. Scattered instances of flash flooding are possible,
especially in the complex terrain of the southern Appalachians and
urban centers.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery across the southern Appalachians
depicts scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning to develop
near an area of low-level convergence extending from the AL/GA
border through eastern TN. Mean layer winds are westerly around
15kts, which provides additional lift in the form of upslope flow.
Additionally, GOES-East WV-ML shows a shortwave evident across the
Mid-South that is pushing eastward and should lead to more
enhanced upper lift across the region through the evening hours
and allowing for potentially multiple rounds after the initial
convection this afternoon. PWs are not terribly anomalous and in
the 1.6-2.0" range (higher south) as the frontal boundary remains
draped across southern GA/AL, but SBCAPE continues to rise above
1000-2000 J/kg due to the broken cloud shield allowing more
filtered sunshine over the last few hours.

The complex terrain of the southern Appalachians and urban
locations remain most at risk to scattered flash flooding
concerns, especially given the potential for rainfall rates to
near/exceed 2"/hr. The 12Z HREF had high neighborhood
probabilities (70-90%) for exceeding 2" in 3 hours across far
southwest NC and far southeast TN, with values over 40% extending
southwest into central AL. Recent HRRR and RRFS guidance remains
mostly isolated for potential totals over 3", so coverage may be
limited and therefore lowering the potential for more significant
impacts.

Snell

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...MRX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   36608310 36588244 36268224 35978245 35278324
            34648386 34058425 33188455 32768533 32978657
            33598688 34558594 35498505 36288394