065
AWUS01 KWNH 080807
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-081330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1140
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EST Fri Nov 08 2024

Areas affected...Central to North TX...far South-central OK...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080815Z - 081330Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding threat continues with slow moving
thunderstorms but with reducing instability coverage and intensity
should be reducing through 12z.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows large scale upper-level closed
low has moved to a more neutral orientation on its way toward a
weak negative tilt over eastern NM.  VWP and RAP analysis suggest
surface to 850 cyclogenesis is starting to break off into a closed
low across the Lower Pecos moving into the Concho Valley.  GOES-E
3.9um SWIR and RADAR mosaic note the backed/slowing low level flow
near the splitting point out of the Rio Grande Valley has resulted
in the southern most cell starting to lift with the forcing wave
as it lifts north.  Still, along and downstream of the low within
the weak split jet flow aloft/along the best divergence axis
aloft, a classic-wedge EIR pattern has formed though is starting
to broaden and round with weakening overall flow and slow
breakdown of the best ascent.  Still, VWP 850-700mb flow remains
solid for the next few hours with deep moisture flux convergence
maximized with said axis from Runnels to Stephens to Jack counties
in Northwest Texas.  Total Pwats over 1.75" and modest but still
supportive 500-1000 J/kg CAPE will maintain the potential for
1.5-2"/hr rates for the next 3-4 hours, slowly waning with time.

Deep layer steering will continue to allow for convective elements
to align and train/repeat and will support 2-4" totals with higher
values north and east of the surface wave. However, the overall
coverage/breadth of the downdrafts may reduce the overall coverage
of the 3-4" in favor of a broader area of 2-3" as the best upper
level support reaches the Red River Valley into south-central OK.
As such, while flash flooding is likely to continue where the
swath of 3-6" from Runnels to Palo Pinto county as the last cells
in the train move through; the probability of new incidents of
flash flooding northward will become more isolated with time and
so the risk reaches the possible flash flooding assignment
category versus likely...though potential increases with any
crossing of urban or traditionally prone localized areas across
Northwest and Northern Texas through 14z.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34959734 34579682 34459669 33909670 32879731
            31729856 31209951 31390018 32080010 33199956
            34729835