374
AWUS01 KWNH 282003
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Central/Eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282000Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with locally high rainfall rates
should lead to a few instances of flash flooding in the southern
Mid-Atlantic through this evening, particularly for urban areas.

DISCUSSION...As of 20Z there is a weak surface low over eastern VA
with lee side troughing extending down through the NC Piedmont.
This is ahead of a mid-level trough axis pushing east over the
southern Appalachians. This is a warm/moist sector with abundant
moisture (PW of 2 to 2.2") and strong surface based instability
(SBCAPE 2000 J/kg in eastern VA and 3000 J/kg in south-central
NC). Also, there is an MCV associated with the morning flood
activity in KY/TN currently tracking south of Charlotte, NC and
outflow/sea breeze in eastern NC from ongoing activity.

Forcing from the mid-level trough axis will continue to promote
peak diurnal convective development that organizes somewhat in
20-30kt bulk shear and 20kt mean layer westerly flow. While most
convection will be somewhat progressive, there is a risk for
repeating activity/cell mergers. Hourly rates should continue to
peak in the 1-2"/hr range. FFG is generally 2-3"/hr, so the main
threat areas should be for urban areas including Richmond, Hampton
Roads, the NC Triangle. Localized flash flooding should be
expected through this evening. Activity may last through the
evening and require a followup discussion.

Jackson

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38067728 38037654 37937544 37437518 35817545
            35067609 34517670 34167822 34147944 34748093
            36397971 37047876 37667812