853
AWUS01 KWNH 021250
FFGMPD
TXZ000-021650-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0850
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of East Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021250Z - 021650Z

SUMMARY...Developing thunderstorms this morning are exhibiting
slow forward motion and estimated to contain rainfall rates up to
2"/hr. Storms may continue for a few additional hours and lead to
isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-East IR satellite imagery depicts cooling cloud
tops across eastern TX within a very moist atmosphere containing
PWs of 2.2-2.3" (above the 75th climatological percentile). Mean
steering flow is also weak and under 10 kts out of north, which
should eventually lead to storms exiting to the south of the
highlighted area but may take a few hours to do so. The 11z HRRR
hints at this southward propagation, but also misses most of the
ongoing activity across East TX. Therefore, the eventual southward
push of thunderstorms seems plausible, but could see storms linger
long enough to produce locally heavy rainfall. Additionally,
decent low and mid-level convergence in the area is likely what is
allowing for storms remain mostly confined to the current axis.
MRMS estimates rainfall rates up to 2"/hr, with KOCH recently
recently recording 1.05" within an hour. Given local FFG, rainfall
amounts would have to near/exceed 3" within 3 hours in order to
see flash flooding concerns. However, CAM guidance is handling
this activity poorly and the HRRR eliminates convection shortly
after initialization. So, with little useful model guidance
available the highlighted area is where ongoing radar/satellite
and environmental trends suggest a few additional hours of heavy
rainfall (rainfall rates up to 2-2.5" in spots) could produce some
isolated instances of flash flooding through the remainder of the
morning.

Snell

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   32299522 32019472 31529443 30889429 30269443
            30339506 30899542 31479562 32099570