878
AWUS01 KWNH 060349
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-061000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0376
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1148 PM EDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Areas affected...southern KS, northern OK, far north TX Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060400Z - 061000Z

Summary...Localized rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr may lead to
continued or additional isolated to widely scattered instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An intense, long-lived supercell is maintaining very
impressive structure following significant impacts to the Lubbock
and surroundings (including tornadoes, extreme straight line
winds, giant hail, and flash flooding). The large cell is tracking
ESE at 10-15 kts (following the expected bunkers right-mover
vector), and the environment downstream is characterized by MUCAPE
of 3000-4000 J/kg, PWATs of 1.4-1.6 inches (near or above the 90th
percentile, using AMA, MAF, and FWD as proxy sounding
climatology), and 40-60 kts of deep layer (0-6 km) shear. The
low-level jet is already providing moderate moisture transport and
warm air advection (20-30 kts at 850 mb), and will only strengthen
significantly (to 30-40 kts) over the next 2-3 hours.

Going forward with a deep layer mean wind of 25-30 kts (towards
ENE) near and downstream of the intense convection (and more than
sufficient instability and shear), organization into a larger MCS
is possible (and should easily be maintained per MCS maintenance
probabilities of 80-90%). Very intense rainfall rates up to
2-3"/hr (and 1" in as little as 15-min, per MRMS) may result in
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Short
term localized totals should be limited to 2-4", given Corfidi
vectors imply 30-35 kt forward speed. Should upscale growth into
an MCS not occur, then localized totals up to 5" may be possible
with a slower moving supercell.

Churchill

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...PUB...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   37969709 37729516 36079494 35889720 35939925
            36100057 36190191 36360312 37140265 37430215
            37600157 37710067 37819968 37899853