170
AWUS01 KWNH 252204
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-WYZ000-260402-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
603 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Areas affected...Central and Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 252202Z - 260402Z

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will
materialize through the early evening hours leading to isolated
flash flood concerns within more urbanized zones and flood prone
locations across the Colorado Front Range into the neighboring
High Plains from Nebraska down through the Texas Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...Regional satellite and radar composite note a steady
increase in convective coverage across the Central and Southern
Rockies this afternoon with a few stronger cells migrating
eastward across the High Plains of Northeast New Mexico.
Environmental conditions are ripe for strong thunderstorm genesis
within the confines of the Central and Southern High Plains as the
area remains parked under a broad mid-level ridge providing ample
diurnal heating atop a relatively buoyant airmass present east of
the Continental Divide. At the surface, a couple quasi-stationary
fronts are situated across NE into the WY Front Range, as well as
a secondary stationary front bisecting the Southern High Plains
between OK and the TX Panhandle, arcing back into the adjacent
Northeastern NM High Plains. Strongest cell cluster over NM is
currently a benefactor of the frontal placement with some
anchoring occurring from a stronger mesocyclone development in the
past hour. With SBCAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg over the Western
High Plains, suitably buoyant environment with modest mid-level
shear on the northeast flank of the ridge will supplement any
convective elements through the next several hours with an
improvement in the low-level shear potential after sunset with the
addition of a LLJ structure initiating after 00z.

Recent trends in guidance have leaned into a consistent growth of
convection across southwest NE down through the CO Front Range as
we head into the late-afternoon and early evening time frame with
a likely genesis of supercellular modes in the initial development
stage as the formidable thermodynamic conditions favor when
coupled with the 30-40kt Effective Bulk Shear across the region.
Cell mergers will materialize this evening with supercell modes
shifting to more multi-cell clusters with potentially strong
enough cores to produce heavy rainfall rates upwards of 2"/hr as
noted via the latest 18z HREF hourly neighborhood probs. Localized
totals between 2-4" are plausible in areas that are directly
impacted by either the supercell initiation, and/or the eventual
multi-cell clusters. Primary areas of focus for flash flooding
will be the more urban zones due to higher run off capabilities,
as well as those more prone areas within low-water crossings in
areas of eastern CO into western KS, down into the TX Panhandle.
Other area of concern remains near Pueblo within the zone
encompassing the Aspen Acres Burn Scar where very sensitive
grounds remain and a Flood Watch remains in effect. Isolated to
widely scattered flash flood potential will exist in the above
areas through the first half of the evening.

Kleebauer

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...CYS...DDC...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   41590346 41510262 41160146 40880086 40310042
            39540033 38610044 37550050 37010059 36560056
            36060066 35420120 35180285 35400444 36080465
            37050482 38710460 40330470 41220505 41570416