856
AWUS01 KWNH 081625
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-082230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0164
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Fri May 08 2026

Areas affected...Southern Louisiana...Southern
Mississippi...Coastal Alabama...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081630Z - 082230Z

SUMMARY...Continued risk of possible urban and localized flash
flooding with new axis of training development as initial band
slowly weakens across S MS/S AL.  Streak of 2-4" totals and
occasional rate over 2"/hr along I-10 corridor.

DISCUSSION...Very little has changed in the overall synoptic
environment and placement of the surface stationary front parallel
to the TX coast before angling toward the SE portions of LA before
likewise angling eastward.  The upper-level divergence has
slightly up-ticked as well just downstream of the synoptic
shortwave ridge in E TX, but the low-level flow has increased
about 10-15 kts from the southwest particularly in the boundary
layer to 850mb.  This has resulted in increased convergence at a
slightly lower elevation across far SE TX into SW LA and with
greater boundary layer depth of moisture and its flux, intensity
of rainfall rates will be increasing as well with occasional
breaches of the 2"/hr rates given TPW nearing 2.0" (loaded mainly
below 850mb) and MUCAPEs over 1000 J/kg.   As this new has
strengthend, the more elevated convection has been robbed and
coverage is reducing along the upstream edge with only the leading
edge convection maintaining across S MS, trending toward far S AL.


The broader west to east ascent plane has also increased the
overall coverage to allow for steering flow to support slightly
better training/repeating profiles in proximity to the I-10
corridor.  Hi-Res CAMs have struggled a bit with the overall
orientation and convective initiation, but the last few RRFS
solutions appear to be most in line with the recent trends
followed by the 12z ARW.  This suggests further training potential
along I-10 with an eventual weak cold pool to perhaps deviate cell
motions a bit south of due east alluding the potential for
intersecting even as far south as I-8 increasing intersection with
the prone urban regions of the area.

Unlike, further north in central LA/S MS, I-10 and south have been
missed in prior events and FFG values are naturally at the highest
values and may still be out of reach for broader flash
flooding/rapid inundation potential, though isolated localized
exceedance is possible. However, intersection with urban centers
is more likely and therefore flash flooding remains more probable
in those areas through the late afternoon/early evening.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   31368957 31228831 31018769 30268757 29978891
            29578976 29789113 29879206 29969301 30209360
            30789342 31089261 31349100