029
AWUS01 KWNH 091349
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-091930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0372
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
948 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Kentucky & Adj poritons of S IND/S OH.

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091350Z - 091930Z

SUMMARY...Decaying MCV with favorable upstream
redevelopment/back-building environment with capability of very
intense rates (2-2.5"/hr) over recently saturated grounds pose
another round of possible flash flooding incident(s).

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite and RAP analysis denotes smaller
scale MCV persists along the Ohio River along the central KY/IND
border region, lifting northeastward; though upstream stronger MCV
and anticyclonic outflow channel is starting to encroach into the
lower Ohio River Valley, starting to dampen the favorable
divergence aloft, but not eliminate it fully yet.   Pre-MCV
convective cells have been eroding downstream of the main
shortwave as they move into a more stable environment over E KY;
however, KLVX shows solid WAA in the wake of the MCV to keep
narrow ascent tendrils from west to east given the upstream
environment remains conditionally unstable with MLCAPEs still at
or above 2000 J/kg toward peak 3000 J/kg over SE MO.

VWP and RAP analysis also show solid west to west-southwesterly
25-30kts from 925-700mb across W KY from this unstable area.  As
such, additional WAA convection has developed from SW IND
east-southeast into central KY feeding off the unstable air.  This
air is also very moist with upper 95-99th/max percentiles of
values at or above 2" with some isolated 2.25".  Given the winds,
flux is solid to support 2-2.5"/hr rain rates.  However, with some
increasing capping at diurnal convective minimum, some mid-level
dNVA and reduced divergence aloft; there still may be a slight
downward trend in overall coverage for the next few hours.
However, as the next upper-level wave approaches, new stronger
round of convection is expected toward 18z.

Irrespective, the grounds have been recently saturated across much
off W KY into central KY and FFG values have rapidly dropped to
less than 1.5" in both 1-3hr values in W KY, though 1.5-2.5"/hr
over portions of the Cumberland Plateau of E KY, enough so to
include them into the potential for scattered incidents of
possible flash flooding through early afternoon.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...PAH...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   38828352 38458277 37458283 36928391 36758492
            36718601 36708744 36808830 37328814 37768777
            38268721 38508646 38678493