333
AWUS01 KWNH 251812
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-260015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0848
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Areas affected...Much of North-central & Eastern Arizona...Much of
Western & Southern New Mexico...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 251815Z - 260015Z

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms developing on the higher
terrain should move off to W and SW with potential upstream
redevelopment/repeating.  Rates of .75-1.25"/hr may result in
scattered localized flash flooding conditions.  Due to
repeating/redevelopment, higher potential for localized 2"+ totals
across the eastern Mogollon Rim and Mogollon Mtns may have higher
coverage/potential into this evening.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a broad, symmetric high
pressure is centered just east of the Four Corners with a slightly
elongated SW to E entrapped shortwave feature close to Black Range
in Southwest New Mexico.  This wave is helpful of low level
upslope flow from the southern deserts of AZ into the Rim and SW
NM Ranges. As such, mountain cycle upslope/convergence is well
into maturity across much of the area of concern though some areas
of remaining enhanced 700mb moisture across Graham to Soccoro
county.  While winds are weak, there is general
convergence/confluence in the 700mb layer along the western and
northwestern edge of the shortwave trof and so increasing
convection, with slightly higher density is expected across the
Eastern Mogollon Rim into the Mogollan Range/Black Range over the
Next few hours.  With further direct insolation, MLCAPEs are
expected to rise into the mid-1000s and isallobaric response
should further enhance moisture convergence especially out of AZ.


Deep layer flow will direct most convection westward along the Rim
and across the upper slopes of southwest Arizona through the
afternoon period with spots of .75"/hr increasing toward 1.25"/hr
toward early evening.  This should result in localized incidents
of flash flooding given hard, rocky ground conditions across the
area.   However, continued easterly and northeasterly confluent
flow out of the Southern High Plains into NM and through the Rio
Grande Valley; an additional round of thunderstorm activity is
expected toward late afternoon/early evening allowing for some
repeating across similar areas with a spot or two of 2" totals.

Sacramento mountains in SE NM...
While not in much of the same regime with confluent flow along the
northern and western side of the shortwave; the upslope response
should be above average today, still responding to the wave along
its southwest periphery.  RAP analysis and local mesoscale wind
observations, also suggest counter upslope along the western
slopes too, which may aid to some increased duration/terrain
locking of the convective cells.  As noted prior, the upslope
streamers look fairly impressive to suggest a slightly enhanced
day of convective activity.  Hi-Res CAMs are supportive of
localized 2" totals along the main ridge and given proximity to
burn scars, flash flooding is considered possible this afternoon
here as well.

Gallina

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   36590903 35940854 35380794 34650624 34150529
            32650523 32440587 33020618 33100674 32810738
            32300817 31360876 31210994 31261092 31701149
            32721117 33191128 33741170 33951217 34141254
            34811303 35721219 35411073 35730997 36160965
            36470948