063
AWUS01 KWNH 140535
FFGMPD
CAZ000-141134-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 140534Z - 141134Z

Summary...Strong onshore flow will continue to promote areas of
heavy rainfall, with rates of 0.5-1 inch/hr becoming possible
along upslope terrain areas.  Flash flooding is likely -
especially where heavier rainfall can materialize across burn
scars and other sensitive areas.

Discussion...A strong mid-upper low centered just west of San
Francisco continues to move very slowly while promoting strong
onshore flow across coastal areas of central California.  Cold
upper levels has fostered areas of 500 J/kg MUCAPE, promoting
heavier rainfall in occasional convective bands that have traveled
toward land on the southern and eastern peripheries of low.  A
belt of strong low- to mid-level flow (around 30 knots at 850mb)
is oriented parallel to coastal ranges between Monterey and San
Luis Obispo and was also aiding in heavy rainfall via orographic
lift.  The heaviest rain was located along and just ahead of a
cold front that was migrating southward along the coastline near
Monterey.

Over time, the strongest of onshore flow will shift southward
along the coast toward the Transverse ranges.  1-1.2 inch PW
values and minimal instability will continue to promote heavy
rainfall and rain rates exceeding 0.5 inch/hr at times.  Areas of
southern California (including the Transverse Ranges and Los
Padres National Forest) will likely experience the heaviest of
activity through 12Z.  Local burn scars will enhance rainfall
potential, and typical low-lying, flood prone spots will also be
susceptible to flash flooding.

An additional area of lighter rain is likely to be maintained
across portions of central California and the southern San Joaquin
Valley.  Rain rates should be a bit lighter in most of these areas
(0.1-0.5 inch/hr), but should persist for several areas and cause
at least minor runoff issues.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38842155 38022017 37111947 36371911 35691934
            35001888 34561784 33881774 33511810 33921923
            34602076 35982190 36902208 37802222 38582215